Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR UNGOING THUNDER. HAVE RECONFIGURED POP AND
WEATHER GRID TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALSO INSERTED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE
WX GRID TO MATCH WITH NEW SEVERE WATCH BOX JUST ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING TSRA LIKELY TO MISS BOTH TAF SITES BUT WILL COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A CB REMARK THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. TSRA MAY AGAIN
FIRE ALONG THE TROUGH OR DRYLINE WRN SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN
POSSIBLY REACHING KLBB BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS.  NAM MODEL FIELDS FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS AS WELL
AS THE 12Z GFS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  HOWEVER THE HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH
RUC RUNS ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC WITH CONVECTION AND KEEP A FEW STORMS
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE THING THAT
DOES MATCH UP BETWEEN ALL THE MODEL RUNS IS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING A RELATIVELY QUIET
TUESDAY MORNING.  OPTED TO KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES AS ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING CAP STRENGTH
HEADING EAST AWAY FROM THIS AREA.  ALSO KEPT MILD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE.  LATEST
NAM RUN IS BREAKING OUT PRECIP ALONG THE SURFACE TROF/DRYLINE AXIS
AND SPREAD IT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...GFS HAS THIS FEATURE OFF BY ABOUT 18 HOURS AND
DEVELOPS THE LINE ACROSS THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HELD OFF CHANGING POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW AND IF THIS FEATURE DOES INDEED DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POSSIBLE HOT
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND...THANKS TO A BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...AS FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE/WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITED THE SAID DISTURBANCE TO POSSIBLY
INDUCE CONVECTION OVER NIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DRYLINE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INDICATIONS
OF AN EASTWARD PUSH TO POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING
PLAINS. HOWEVER A FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES APPEARS
VALID ATTM...AS THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
EASTWARD PROPAGATION. SFC-BASED CAPE AOA 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW /ALTHOUGH ANY
CONVECTION INITIATION COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS/. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER WILL DRIVE A
NORTHERLY FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
FORECAST MODELS SHOWING BEST NON-SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES TO
BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY LATE THURSDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN CONSENSUS
REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND AN EASTWARD EXPANSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEX GUIDANCE DISPLAYED TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TRIPLE DIGITS TEMPS IS LIKELY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY /HIGHEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES/ WITH A
SLIGHT DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THUS...HAVE A KEPT A DRY FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MAY AID TO MITIGATE CONVECTION INITIATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  91  56  92  59 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         66  92  64  95  59 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  92  65  95  61 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     65  92  65  95  64 /  20  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  65  96  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  62  94  62 /  20  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  96  62 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  97  69  97  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          64  94  69  99  61 /  10  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     67  96  71  99  65 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/03/01