Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

.AVIATION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR KCDS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
TO HIT KCDS DURING THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM TO HIT KLBB DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED FOR A CB IN THE TAF AT KLBB. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT ENDING
THE THUNDER CHANCES. SURFACE WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND A MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ROTATING NOW INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND
WILL SWEEP OUT THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE
THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DIFFUSE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
NONE-THE-LESS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND NOW SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDER
BREAKING OUT ALONG A FEW PARTS OF THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY BACK
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO...MOIST BACKED SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH NET CONVERGENT FLOW THROUGH THE EASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THIS
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. A TORNADO WATCH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES IN...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
OVERCOME THE DRYLINE. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDER SPREADING
THROUGH WESTERN ZONES SHOULD ERUPT NEAR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...SPREADING INTO ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
FAVOR A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE CELLS AND LINES ALONG WITH WAVES ALONG
THE LINES AND A CLEAR TORNADO THREAT. BY LATE EVENING...FLOW
SHOULD FAVOR MORE A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH DECREASING TORNADO THREAT
BUT ON-GOING WIND AND HAIL RISK AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH ROLLING PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH LOOKS
REASONABLE EASTERN ZONES...AND MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
WESTERN ZONES.

DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL LEAD TO A COOLER BUT WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY.  WINDS MAY REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND WITH
RECENT RAINFALL THERE MAY BE A LAYER OF FINE SILT READY TO BE PICKED
UP BY THE WIND. SO...RETAINED DRY AND WINDY FORECAST WITH MENTION OF
PATCHY DUST FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH THE NAM DOES PAINT A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER...BUT PROSPECTS OF ANY MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATION APPEAR LOW. ALSO...SOME MEDIUM RANGE NWP TRIES TO
ADVANCE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION IN NORTHERN NM AND SE CO TOWARD
THE NW CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEARS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO MAKE THE
LONG TRACK INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK DROPPING
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE REGION...THOUGH THE EXACT STRENGTH/PUSH OF
THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALSO...GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT TUESDAY...THOUGH
SOME LATITUDE/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT IF UPPER AND SFC FEATURES COME TOGETHER THEY MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING STORM CHANCES LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS UNTIL THE PICTURE CLEARS. STORM
CHANCES COULD IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  66  39  68  39 /  40  10  10  10  10
TULIA         43  66  41  70  41 /  40  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     44  67  40  72  41 /  40  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  72  43 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       45  69  43  73  44 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   45  68  41  75  43 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    46  68  42  74  44 /  40  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     51  73  47  74  48 /  60  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  72  40  75  45 /  60  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     52  75  46  78  47 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

TXZ021>044-232030-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
316 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE ROUGHLY OVER THE INTERSTATE 27
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD BY
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
743 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TORNADO          8 SW CEE VEE            34.15N 100.54W
04/22/2010                   MOTLEY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO - MOVING
            EAST AT 15 MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000062

MCONDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
751 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             12 ENE POST             33.26N 101.19W
04/22/2010  E2.75 INCH       GARZA              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000063

MCONDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
816 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E CROSBYTON           33.64N 101.17W
04/22/2010                   CROSBY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COTTON TRAILER FLIPPED OVER AND POLE BARN PUSHED OVER
            FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF SILVER FALLS
            ROADSIDE PARK

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000064

MCONDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
832 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             TAHOKA                  33.16N 101.79W
04/22/2010  E1.00 INCH       LYNN               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL SIZE INCREASING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000065

MCONDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

TXZ029-030-035-036-230245-
CROSBY-FLOYD-HALE-LUBBOCK-
840 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LUBBOCK...CROSBY...HALE  AND
FLOYD  COUNTIES...

AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TO ABOUT
15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING...AND A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO
DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
841 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             5 N TAHOKA              33.24N 101.79W
04/22/2010  E1.00 INCH       LYNN               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG FM400 BETWEEN
            TAHOKA AND WILSON

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000066

MCONDER