Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SHORT TERM...
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS VALID...AND THE CURRENTLY PLEASANT
WEATHER ON THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING
THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS.

CUMULUS FIELDS/INCIPIENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND IN
VICINITY OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT/FRONT NEAR PALO DURO/TULE
CANYONS. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN ARE THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ATOP A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND 40-50 DEGREE TEMP/TD
SPREADS. STRONG PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
CERTAINLY POSE A RISK OF DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...ALL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS DISCUSSED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STRONG COLD POOLS CONGEAL GIVEN THE DEEPLY
MIXED AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT.

IN THE AMBIENT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE CURRENT DIURNAL PRESSURE
MINIMUM. AS SUCH...OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF
TIGHT MSLP GRADIENTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT NOW RANGE FROM 25
TO 30 KT. RUC AND NAM PROGGED GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AOA 30KT AND
850MB WINDS 40-50KT CONTINUE TO ARGUE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT/BRIEF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS /25-35 MPH RANGE/ OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AND LINGERING SHOWERS/CONVECTION WILL BE
ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DRAWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH LIFT ALSO SPREADING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
CONVECTION AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  79  51  85  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
TULIA         57  78  50  83  58 /  50   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     58  77  52  84  59 /  50   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     59  78  52  86  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       60  79  55  85  62 /  60  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  80  55  86  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    61  80  55  87  62 /  60  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     60  83  55  86  60 /  70   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  80  57  87  62 /  70  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  83  60  87  65 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>035.

&&

20/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

TXZ021>044-031815-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
103 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A FAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...
WITH A PRONOUNCED THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THOSE OVER ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR...THEN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 385 CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS EAST OF THE
CAPROCK. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

NON PRECIPITATION

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             4 SSW LUBBOCK           33.52N 101.90W
09/02/2010  E1.25 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

0541 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW LUBBOCK           33.52N 101.90W
09/02/2010  E60 MPH          LUBBOCK            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000302
EVENT NUMBER LUB1000303

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE WOLFFORTH         33.52N 101.97W
09/02/2010  E70 MPH          LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000304

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
549 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             2 W LUBBOCK             33.58N 101.91W
09/02/2010  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   PUBLIC

            ON TEXAS TECH CAMPUS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000305

JWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             2 WNW LUBBOCK           33.59N 101.91W
09/02/2010  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000306

JWJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

TXZ026-032-022330-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-
605 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTLE  AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES...

AT 602 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH. A SECOND STORM WAS DEVELOPING 10 MILES NORTH OF CHILDRESS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

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