Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1237 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

.UPDATE...
/645 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

MCS RAIN MAKING MORE RAPID NWD PROGRESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
NEW TIMING SHOULD BRING IT THRU MUCH OF THE FA BY 18Z...BUT
INTENSITY SHOULD LESSEN SOME AS IT MOVES NWD AS IT INCREASES ITS
DISTANCE FROM DRIVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AIR.

NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER MO LATER TODAY IN DIRECT
RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE MOVING OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
WEAKENING MCS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ALONG ITS EDGES...THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE TRIPLE POINT.

TES
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/440 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

CURRENTLY WE ARE IN AN INTERIM BETWEEN EPISODES OF PCPN...WITH THE
NEXT MAJOR WAVE OF PCPN HAVING ALREADY FORMED OVER ERN TX AND IS
RACING NEWD INTO AR ATTM. MOST MODELS HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON
THIS...WHICH IS A RESPONSE TO A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPR
LO BASED IN WRN KS...AND THE NRN EDGE OF THIS PCPN SHOULD REACH
THE MO RIVER BY MIDDAY AS THIS RIDES AN AREA OF VERY STRONG AND
DEEP LIFT. WHILE ALL AREAS OF THE FA WILL SEE RAIN TODAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE STL METRO AREA AND
POINTS TO THE S AND E. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WILL BE WHERE NEW
WRMFNT AND TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DYNAMICS
FROM THIS WAVE...AND AS THESE FEATURES MOVE THRU FROM LATE MORNING
THRU EARLY EVENING...THIS WILL REPRESENT THE GREATEST SVR THREAT
IN OUR REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FFG VALUES ARE STILL HI IN MANY
LOCATIONS AND HAVE OPTED AT THIS TIME TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. WILL EVALUATE A FEW MORE THINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAKE
FINAL CALL BY 12Z. EITHER WAY...RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS MCS MOVES THRU.

ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE WILL BE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THE
WAKE OF PASSAGE OF THE NEW TRIPLE POINT LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MIX DOWN POTENTIAL WITH
DRIER AIR ON THE SRN FLANK ALONG WITH VERY HI WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. HAVE ADDED IN WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS THAT ARE MUCH HIGHER. THIS IS THE
TYPE OF THING THAT WILL NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON IT...BEING
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF...UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...AND WILL
LEAVE IT IN THE HANDS OF THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL CALL ON ANY
NEED FOR WIND HEADLINES.

OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FA
THRU EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES AS A
RESULT AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE.
ENOUGH DISTANCE SHOULD EXIST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TO FINALLY END
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR A BRIEF TIME. THAT IS BECAUSE A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST STRONG STORM. GFS
CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT FAST AND THE NAM HAS OTHER PROBLEMS...AND
SO PREFER THE ECMWF TIMING WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN...AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE
ALSO DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES DROP SE WHICH TENDS TO SLOW
THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S...DESPITE BEING IN THE
60S NOW...FOR AREAS S OF THE MO RIVER WHERE THE RAIN WILL REACH
BY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY...WITH TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 70S N. WE WILL
THEN ENTER A COOL PERIOD FOR SUNDAY - TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THANKS TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHCS.

TES
&&

.AVIATION...
/1237 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING...MOVING INTO
TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO PIN
DOWN...SO JUST HAVE VCNTY TS MENTIONED FOR ALL SITES...TIL I CAN GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. THEN
A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE WRAP AROUND
RWS/TRWS MOVE THROUGH MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. AS FOR CIGS...LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF VALID TAF TIME...THOUGH COULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY ON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
WINDS. WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL SEE EAST WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST AT KCOU...KSUS AND
KSTL. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AS FOR
KUIN...THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SURFACE LOW...SO WINDS TO BACK FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST...THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SEE DISSCUSSION ABOVE...WITH HEAVIEST PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-251215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A CUBA...ST CHARLES....CARLINVILLE
LINE...AND STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
420 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             BALLWIN                 38.59N  90.55W
04/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 141 AND MANCHESTER.

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
421 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             FENTON                  38.54N  90.45W
04/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0418 PM     TSTM WND GST     FENTON                  38.54N  90.45W
04/24/2010  E55 MPH          ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
424 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             WEBSTER GROVES          38.59N  90.35W
04/24/2010  M0.88 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT GRAVOIS AND I-55 ESTIMATED WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH.

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
427 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              38.59N  90.51W
04/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
429 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW FULTON             38.82N  91.99W
04/24/2010  M55 MPH          CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
430 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NW KIRKWOOD           38.60N  90.45W
04/24/2010                   ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR MANCHESTER AND 270.

&&

TRUETT