Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
502 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/455 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

STRONG CDFNT EXTENDED FROM SFC LOW OVER MN S THROUGH THE STL METRO
AREA...THEN SW INTO NERN TX. SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
A QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WAS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM NEAR
PALMYRA ILLINOIS SW TO ANNAPOLIS MISSOURI. THIS FAST MOVING LINE
OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH E OF THE CWA BY ABOUT 13Z TUE WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MRNG BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE SKY WILL CLEAR OUT
LATER THIS MRNG AND THIS AFTN AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES NEWD THROUGH
THE AREA S OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AND AS
LOW LEVEL CAA AND DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE 850 MB TROUGH/SFC
CDFNT. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY NERN MO AND W CNTRL
IL...JUST N OF STL DUE TO THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THIS AREA S OF THE INTENSE...DEEP SFC LOW OVER MN. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEY WILL
STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A SECOND...WEAKER CDFNT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GO
THROUGH DRY...BUT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WED NGT. THE MODELS BRING THE ZERO
DEGREE 850 MB ISOTHERM SWD INTO CNTRL MO WED NGT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WED NGT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NGT
AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THU NGT WHEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NEAR THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED. WITH A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND...
LOW SFC DEW POINTS...AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S THERE SHOULD BE FROST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
BEGIN FRI AFTN AS MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND THE SFC/850 MB
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SE OF THE AREA WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AND SFC WINDS BECOMING SLY.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1144 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010/
SQUALL LINE HAS RAPIDLY FORMED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF 45 MPH.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE PUSHED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXPECTED CONVECTION TO END
AROUND 0900 UTC. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SQUALL LINE HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
STRONG SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO STL AREA BETWEEN 0900-1100 UTC EXPECT
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-
     LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
849 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
849 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FAST-MOVING TORNADOES ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS LINE. THE SEVERE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
MOVING RAPIDLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
THAT THE PUBLIC MONITORS THE WEATHER AND IS ABLE TO TAKE SHELTER
QUICKLY WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FAST-MOVING TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. PLEASE SEE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WIND AND TORNADO DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
455 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 AM     TSTM WND GST     SWANSEA                 38.54N  89.99W
10/26/2010  E55 MPH          ST. CLAIR          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50-55 MPH GUSTS

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE O'FALLON           38.55N  89.86W
10/26/2010  M45 MPH          ST. CLAIR          IL   ASOS

            OB FROM SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE

&&

TRUETT

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