Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/244 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

FORECAST FOCUS THIS EVENING IS COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO
AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AGITATED CU FIELD ON VISIBLE
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE SOON. EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
REGION EXPERIENCES SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM 500MB SHORTWAVE. GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NOW APPEARS
WE COULD SEE MIXED MODES OF CONVECTION INITIALLY...WITH EVEN
SUPERCELLS...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNEAKING INTO OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM AND SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE MID TO UPPER 90S IN ST. LOUIS METRO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRUSHING AT LEAST OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL LIKELY SEE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. TRIED TO DEPICT HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE
MORE OF A RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL RESIDE...TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PLACE MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS
IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHERN SHIFT OF THE FRONT AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SEND THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/615 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE DVLPD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MO LATE THIS AFTN
INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FNT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS/MO. CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL DVLPMT FARTHER NORTH HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
ATTM TO INCLUDE IN KCOU/KUIN TAFS. COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LGT/VAR WINDS...AND ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO A PD OF MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE DVLPD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN MO LATE THIS AFTN INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FNT DRAPED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70. SEVERAL WEAKENING CELLS WERE MOVING TOWARDS
KSTL/KSUS AT ISSUANCE. VCTS LOOKS SUFFICIENT THROUGH 02Z GIVEN
SPARSE COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DVLPMT IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-12Z AT KSTL/KSUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 12Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-131200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
330 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES.

MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 105 DEGREES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA.

MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

MOZ072-122230-
CRAWFORD MO-
441 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF CHERRYVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
STEELVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CHERRYVILLE...
  DAVISVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TILLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

MOZ049-122245-
OSAGE MO-
501 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FREEBURG...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF LINN...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  RICH FOUNTAIN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

MOZ073-084-122315-
IRON MO-WASHINGTON MO-
536 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND IRON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VIBURNUM...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
STEELVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VIBURNUM...
  COURTOIS...
  BIXBY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

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