Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1023 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.UPDATE...
/1017 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF CONVECTION/OUTFLOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
WEAK CAP...THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SET OFF MORE STORMS
IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS
FURTHER IF THIS LINE STARTS LOOKING MORE SOLID THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/347 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONCERN FOR HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY AS WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY FOR THE NWRN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ELONGATED MCS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS SHOWN LITTLE EWD ADVANCEMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUC DOES SHOW DECENT 925-850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NRN CWA THIS MORNING THAT MAY STILL SPARK
TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE NRN CWA.
WEAK ASCENT FROM VORT ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
CAUSE AT LEAST SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MID-DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MOVING
FROM NERN MO INTO S CNTRL IL THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS LOW
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND EXPLICIT WRF REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGEST TSRA
MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE EVENING OVER CNTRL MO AND MOVE
EWD. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL
OVER THE CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK VORTS MOVING ACROSS IT. HERE
AGAIN...0-3KM SHEAR WILL SUFFICE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATION OF EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY CAUSES ME TO ONLY GO WITH CHANCE
POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE
POPS DURING THESE PERIODS ONCE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH MONDAY
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL GET A DRY DAY UNTIL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NRN STREAM CAN PUSH FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS COUNTIES IN CNTRL/NERN MO
AND FAR W CNTRL IL THAT HAVE HAD THE MOST RAINFALL AS OF RECENT
CAUSING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO BE LOWEST.  DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYERS AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANY TSRA COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  WATCH MAY NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION ACTUALLY UNFOLDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HAVE GONE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS IN THE NRN AND
WRN PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE THERE ARE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND
MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A BLEND ELSEWHERE. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO
CLIMB CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AGAIN OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/543 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

ALREADY GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE STL METRO
AREA...WITH MORE MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA MOVING NEWD THRU NWRN MO.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO UIN THIS MRNG AND WILL
INCLUDE VCSH IN THE UIN TAF THIS MRNG. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND WILL NEED VCTS IN THE
TAFS. MAY BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE MID-LATE EVNG
HOURS...BUT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH UIN AND COU LATE
TGT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MO. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA IN UIN AND COU LATE TGT. WILL LEAVE STL/SUS
DRY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
AROUND 5000-6000 FT. MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MRNG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 4000 FT. S-SWLY SFC WINDS TDA AND
TGT WITH THE FRONT REMAINING N OF UIN.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...LEFT STL DRY THIS MRNG AS THE SHOWERS ON RADAR
ARE SMALL AND ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SCATTERED
TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE SHRA/TSRA.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MRNG AND BECOME BKN
AROUND 4000 FT. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED TGT WITH MOST OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY N AND W OF STL. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 9 KTS THIS AFTN FROM A SWLY DIRECTION
THEN WEAKEN TO AROUND 6 KTS THIS EVNG.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
     MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
503 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141015-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
503 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL
AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO
ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
110 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE BURTON             39.94N  91.20W
06/13/2010  M53 MPH          ADAMS              IL   ASOS

            PEAK WIND GUST REPORTED AT QUINCY REGIONAL AIRPORT

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
131 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             LIBERTY                 39.88N  91.11W
06/13/2010  E0.25 INCH       ADAMS              IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN AT THE LIBERTY FIRE HOUSE

0114 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIBERTY                 39.88N  91.11W
06/13/2010  E50 MPH          ADAMS              IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN AT THE LIBERTY FIRE HOUSE

&&

SIPPRELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
227 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

MOZ019-026-027-132015-
LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
227 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...NORTHEASTERN
SHELBY AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EMDEN...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBINA...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PALMYRA...
  WARREN...
  PHILADELPHIA...
  MAYWOOD...
  LA GRANGE...
  TAYLOR...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
228 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             3 NW PHILADELPHIA       39.87N  91.78W
06/13/2010  E0.70 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND GST     FOWLER                  40.01N  91.26W
06/13/2010  E50 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE