River Flood Warning 93, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/654 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SFC LOW...WHICH APPEARS TO ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN STL AND
UIN AT 2330Z. PASSAGE OF THE LOW OUT OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH LOSS
OF UNSTABILITY WITH SUNSET...SHOULD CAUSE THREAT TO WIND DOWN
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE EVENING IS HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
SPIRAL AROUND UPPER LOW...AND ANIMATION OF REGIONAL RADARS CLEARLY
SHOWS DEF-ZONE TYPE PRECIP SHIELD HAS SET UP FROM MID MO INTO SE
IA. EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARIER IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT...AND THIS IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL HOLD SHOWER THREAT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
YIELDING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO
SUNDAY. WITH THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...JUST A BIT OF HEATING
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION. THIS TREND WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND STILL LOOKS
QUITE GOOD.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1237 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010/

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING...MOVING INTO
TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO PIN
DOWN...SO JUST HAVE VCNTY TS MENTIONED FOR ALL SITES...TIL I CAN GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. THEN
A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE WRAP AROUND
RWS/TRWS MOVE THROUGH MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. AS FOR CIGS...LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF VALID TAF TIME...THOUGH COULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY ON FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
WINDS. WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL SEE EAST WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST AT KCOU...KSUS AND
KSTL. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AS FOR
KUIN...THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SURFACE LOW...SO WINDS TO BACK FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST...THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SEE DISSCUSSION ABOVE...WITH HEAVIEST PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONROE MO-OSAGE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-251215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
857 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE STORMS
IN THESE AREAS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED GROUND.
FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
824 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FULTON                  38.85N  91.95W
04/24/2010  M2.33 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     FLOOD            3 S LADDONIA            39.20N  91.64W
04/24/2010                   AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE CUIVRE RIVER ... PORTION OF HIGHWAY 19 IS
            SUBMERGED UNDER SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER ... IN ADDITION
            ROUTE K EAST OF LADDONIA IS IMPASSIBLE ... AND WATER
            INUNDATING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 19 NORTH OF WHERE HIGHWAY
            54 SPLITS FROM 19

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NW FULTON            38.96N  92.08W
04/24/2010  M4.80 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.8 INCHES IN MILLERSBURG

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     FLOOD            MONTICELLO              40.12N  91.71W
04/24/2010                   LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 156 BETWEEN HIGHWAY 6 AT EWING AND HIGHWAY J
            WILL BE CLOSED OVERNIGHT DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
942 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STEFFENVILLE            39.97N  91.88W
04/24/2010  M3.00 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
948 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPAULDING               39.62N  91.53W
04/24/2010  M3.50 INCH       RALLS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

BYRD