River Flood Warning 276, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/326 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010/

STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
DEALING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY. THEN NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...WILL STILL SEE SOME DECENT RAINS OVER THE AREA AS
COMPLEX PUSHES ACROSS REGION...WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. WITH IT WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FEEL THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. DEPENDING ON WHEN ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END AND SEE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO DEAL
WITH...SO FOR NOW SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MID 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE THE RAIN WILL
NOT AFFECT VERY MUCH. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING BOUNDARIES...AND
POSSIBLE STORMS.

BY TONIGHT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH STORMS MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH REGION IN WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.
BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70. ON
FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80.

BEYOND THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/614 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010/

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z. THE SHRA WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT KCOU WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MAIN AXIS OF THE RAIN. MORE TSRA
ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN MO/SERN IA WHICH MAY AFFECT KUIN AS THEY
MOVE SEWD. THE HEAVIER CORES IN THE TSRA WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN +RA WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CIGS HAD FALLEN TO
500FT EARLIER AT KCOU...AND ARE CURRENTLY 700FT AT IRK INDICATING
THAT THERE ARE SOME IFR CIGS AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT TO KEEPING THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT SLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER
THIS MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD KSTL OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...SO WILL JUST USE VCSH TO
REFLECT A LESSENING CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TERMINAL. WINDS HAVE
BEEN VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THEY SHOULD BE S-SWLY THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
347 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
COMING TO AN END BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL PRECIPITATION REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

BYRD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
556 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
09/22/2010  M1.37 INCH       BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED AT SANBORN FIELD SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

BYRD