River Flood Warning 257, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/419 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010/

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL AND NWRN MO WELL AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEBRASKA SW
THROUGH WRN KS AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT EXTENDING FROM WRN MN SW
THROUGH CNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF WEAKER
IMPULSES OR MCVS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND LOW-MID
LEVEL WAA...850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 850 MB THETA E
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TGT
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN MO AS WELL AS W CNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THIS AREA MAY GET SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE CELLS...PLUS WITH ABUNDANT LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWS THE STORMS WILL HAVE
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. BESIDES HEAVY RAINFALL SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ALSO HAIL.
ALTHOUGH THE CDFNT WILL NOT MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE CWA TIL LATE TGT
AND SAT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TGT ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING 850 MB TROUGH...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THE 12Z NCEP 4 KM WRF HAS MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVNG AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BEST ON SAT. THE
LATEST 18Z NAM MODEL RUN ALSO HAS THE CONVECTION E AND S OF THE
CWA AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH THE CDFNT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON SAT
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC INSTABILITY WILL
STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS S AND E OF STL ON SAT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END BY SAT NGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE E OF THE CWA WITH THE CDFNT SE OF THE CWA. MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER BEGINNING ON SUN AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD
INTO MO WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION S INTO MO IL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUN NGT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS FILTERING
INTO THE CWA. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON TUE AND TUE NGT AS ANOTHER CDFNT
DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. IT DOES NOT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG IT
SHOULD BE WEAK AND LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. THE
ECMWF MODEL IN PARTICULAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR ADVECTING IN THE CWA WED AND WED NGT BEHIND THIS FRONT.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/635 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010/

LATEST MESO SCALE SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION
OVER AREA WILL BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED THIS EVENING. THIS CAUSES
A RAPID SE SHIFT IN THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS...SO FAST IN FACT THAT
ACCORDING TO THE HRRR MOST OF THE PRECIP WOULD BE ALG AND S OF A
JEF-STL LN SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THINK THESE SOLUTIONS MAY BE A BIT
TOO FAST...AND HAVE USED SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE AS
A FIRST ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE PRECIP MAY END...06Z AT UIN...08Z AT
COU...AND 10-11Z FOR STL AREA. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED WITH CLUSTER PUSHING FROM
COU TO STL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BAND OF PRECIP CENTERED
NEAR MKC-UIN PRODUCING OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
OUTFLOW WITH SMALL CLUSTER PUSHING EAST OF COU ATTM SHOULD BRING
NEXT THREAT OF STORMS TO STL AREA 02-03Z TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY
A STEADIER RAIN WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR IN EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE 06-10Z
TIME FRAME. MAY SEE SOME OCNL MVFR IN ST/FOG EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
FAR AS STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW BELIEVE THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM
TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL BECOME PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORMS...SO
ATTM LIMITED MENTION OF TSRA THREAT TO CB CLOUD GROUP IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF CDFNT.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-
     ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
452 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY GENERATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A
THREAT OF FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ALL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
08/20/2010                   COLE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO REPORTS OF POWER LINES DOWN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS
            OF JEFFERSON CITY.

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
859 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEXICO                  39.17N  91.87W
08/20/2010                   AUDRAIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN IN THE 5700 BLOCK OF EAST LIBERTY.

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WELDON SPRING           38.72N  90.65W
08/20/2010                   ST. CHARLES        MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG HIGHWAY 94 AND
            HARVESTER ROAD.

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLOOD            LINN                    38.48N  91.84W
08/20/2010                   OSAGE              MO   PUBLIC

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN LINN

&&

SIPPRELL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>