River Flood Warning 147, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/355 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010/

WEAKENING CDFNT EXTENDING THROUGH UIN AND COU WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD.  THERE WAS NOT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS CDFNT
ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...BUT AN MCS FURTHER SW ALONG THIS FRONT WAS
MOVING NEWD THROUGH SWRN MO. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVNG...FROM STL S.
ALTHOUGH THIS CDFNT WILL BE PUSHING S OF THE AREA...SWD TO NRN AR
BY 12Z FRI WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE CWA BEHIND
IT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA FRI AND FRI NGT MAINLY ACROSS SERN MO
AND SWRN IL AS THE 850 MB FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH 850 MB DWPTS S OF IT ACROSS SRN MO AND SRN IL.
WEAK SW FLOW SHRTWVS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE E-NEWD THRU THE
AREA AS WELL. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NEWD ON SAT AND SAT NGT AS RETURN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW BRINGS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK N-NEWD THROUGH THE CWA WITH A WRMFNT LIFING
NWD INTO THE CWA SAT NGT. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK BRINGING QPF INTO THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON SAT
DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES SO PREFER THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
SAT AND SAT NGT. THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ON SUN AND SUN NGT AS AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
INITIATES A SFC WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD THRU
MO. STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SFC LOW...THE ECMWF MODEL BEING SLOWER AND FURTHER S WITH
THIS SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ON MON BEHIND THE SFC LOW. A MORE TRANQUIL AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUE THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/640 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010/

FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE STL METRO AREA...WHERE MCV
IS MOVING NEWD THRU THE AREA AND WILL DRIVE A DECAYING MCS THRU BY
01Z. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 01Z BOTH WITH EXIT OF MCS AND
CD FROPA. OF FURTHER CONCERN IS AN AREA OF IFR CIGS ADVANCING NEWD
ALG I-44 IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND BHND THE CDFNT THAT WILL POSE
A THREAT TO THE STL METRO AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. LO
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE NW THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MID-HI VFR CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE STL METRO AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS A NEW AREA OF MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NEWD FROM THE
GULF. MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AOA 10KFT...SO ATTM WILL CONSIDER VCSH
FOR A FUTURE UPDATE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MCS
AND IFR CIGS BHND THE MCS AND WITH CD FROPA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE THESE FEATURES IN...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WITH
DECAYING MCS THAT SATURATION FOR LOW CLOUDS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT
THAN IT WAS FOR AREAS TO THE SW. OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
414 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWESTILLINOIS...THEN
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

ILZ059-098>100-MOZ061-063-064-140030-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS
MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
649 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ST. CHARLES...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...SOUTHERN MACOUPIN...
CALHOUN...JERSEY AND WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 644 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM O'FALLON TO LADUE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ST. JOHN...
  ST. CHARLES...
  BEL-RIDGE...
  WOODSON TERRACE...
  HILLSDALE...
  NORMANDY...
  BRIDGETON...
  NORTHWOODS...
  COOL VALLEY...
  KINLOCH...
  BERKELEY...
  JENNINGS...
  FERGUSON...
  HAZELWOOD...
  DELLWOOD...
  FLORISSANT...
  BELLEFONTAINE NEIGHBORS...
  RIVERVIEW...
  BLACK JACK...
  GRANITE CITY...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HAZELWOOD         38.76N  90.37W
05/13/2010  M63 MPH          ST. LOUIS          MO   ASOS

            AT LAMBERT FIELD AIRPORT.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW HAZELWOOD         38.76N  90.37W
05/13/2010                   ST. LOUIS          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            PART OF THE ROOF OF A SMALL STORAGE BUILDING WAS BLOWN
            OFF JUST NORTH OF LAMBERT FIELD.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
710 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HAZELWOOD         38.76N  90.37W
05/13/2010  M63 MPH          ST. LOUIS          MO   ASOS

            AT LAMBERT FIELD AIRPORT.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E ALTON               38.90N  90.13W
05/13/2010  E40 MPH          MADISON            IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BYRD

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