Frost Advisory 4, NWS St. Louis, MO

891 
WWUS73 KLSX 022031
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SAT OCT 2 2010

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.THE FIRST KILLING FROST OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 30S...AND
THESE LOW TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FROST
TO DEVELOP.

ILZ095-MOZ018-019-026-027-034-031215-
/O.CON.KLSX.FR.Y.0004.101003T0900Z-101003T1400Z/
ADAMS IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL
331 PM CDT SAT OCT 2 2010

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY. 

* THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH A LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW 
  FOR THE FIRST KILLING FROST OF THE SEASON TO DEVELOP. 

* THIS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED
PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE
AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$

GLASS

241 
WWUS73 KLSX 030233
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
933 PM CDT SAT OCT 2 2010

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.THE FIRST KILLING FROST OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 30S...AND
THESE LOW TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FROST
TO DEVELOP.

ILZ095-MOZ018-019-026-027-034-031300-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FR.Y.0004.101003T0900Z-101003T1300Z/
ADAMS IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL
933 PM CDT SAT OCT 2 2010

...FROST ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY...

THE FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY.

* THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH A LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW 
  FOR THE FIRST KILLING FROST OF THE SEASON TO DEVELOP. 

* THIS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED
PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE
AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$

TES

079 
WWUS73 KLSX 030858
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2010

ILZ095-MOZ018-019-026-027-034-031300-
/O.CON.KLSX.FR.Y.0004.101003T0900Z-101003T1300Z/
ADAMS IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL
358 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

* THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

* LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH A LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
  AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED
PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE
AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$

CARNEY

942 
WWUS73 KLSX 031304
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
804 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2010

ILZ095-MOZ018-019-026-027-034-031415-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-101003T1300Z/
ADAMS IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL
804 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/342 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2010/

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TGT CARVING
OUT A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND SENDING A CDFNT SWD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TGT AND SAT
MRNG.  THIS CDFNT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SERN
WI W-SW THROUGH NRN NEBRASKA SRN SD.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT
SWD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TGT AND SAT MRNG AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
CDFNT. THE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA PER THE NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS QPF. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA
LATE TGT...AND OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAINLY SAT MRNG.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE. WITH STRONG
CAA ON SAT AND AT LEAST SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MRNG HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN TODAY...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG 1030-1033
MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD THROUGH MO IL BEHIND THE CDFNT. A MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS ON SUN. THE NAM IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FURTHER W
WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT WILL BE OVER NERN MO WHERE SOME PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE. OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THE SFC WIND MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR FROST TO DEVELOP PLUS THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...MAINLY AROUND 40. A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
FROST WILL OCCUR LATE SUN NGT AND EARLY MON MRNG WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO. LOWS SUN
NGT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. A VERY GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN MON AFTN. PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE NAM MODEL AND THE PAST ECMWF MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SLOWER
MOVING THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW E OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL WHICH BRINGS A MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EWD INTO MO MON NGT. THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WILL LEAD TO A SLOWER WARMUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU MUCH OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. ONLY CONCERNS WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CENTER NEAR OR
JUST AFTER CD FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A DROP INTO MVFR CIG RANGE APPEARS LIKELY. MODELS HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING LOWER THAN 2KFT AT KUIN NEAR 12Z...BUT
STILL BELIEVE THAT THE WORST WILL BE TO THE NE. ANY OCCURRENCE OF
PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AND JUST BHND THE CDFNT...AND
LIMITED ANY TEMPO MENTIONS TO JUST 2 OR 3 HRS. THEREAFTER EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO SCT-BKN SC CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH ANY CIGS REMAINING
IMPROVING TO VFR RANGE BY MIDDAY. LOOK FOR LGT/VRBL SFC WNDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH A SHARP SHIFT TO THE N WITH THE CDFNT WHERE
SPEEDS WILL INCR AND BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL DMSH SATURDAY EVNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY ON SATURDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE CDFNT...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY AFTN...TRANSITION TO SCT-BKN SC CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH RETURN TO VFR. LGT W SFC WNDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WNW JUST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT BEFORE A MORE
SHARP SHIFT TO THE NNW WITH THE CDFNT WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCR AND
BECOME GUSTY. SFC WNDS WILL THEN DMSH SATURDAY EVENING.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
358 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BRING A THREAT OF PATCHY FROST TO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A BETTER CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

GKS