Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS St. Louis, MO

953 
WGUS73 KLSX 010435
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOC055-010700-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100501T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD MO-
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL
200 AM CDT...

AT 1132 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. 
HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER 
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF 
RAIN POSSIBLE. AT 10 PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT A SMALL 
CREEK WITH A BRIDGE OVER IT REMAINS IMPASSABLE IN STEELVILLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BOURBON...
CUBA...STEELVILLE...CHERRYVILLE AND LEASBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9132 3778 9133 3778 9153 3821 9154
      3820 9110 3778 9111 3774 9111 3774 9116
      3770 9116

$$

BYRD

971 
WGUS73 KLSX 010653
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
153 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

MOC055-010708-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100501T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD MO-
153 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3770 9132 3778 9133 3778 9153 3821 9154
      3820 9110 3778 9111 3774 9111 3774 9116
      3770 9116

$$

BYRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/1229 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010/

EARLY FORECAST DISCUSSION DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER

UNORGANIZED LINEAR MCS RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI
LATE THIS MORNING...MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST CWA. BUT LOOKING FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS 50 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE NORTH. LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH BREAKS IN STRATOCUMULUS DECK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THIS DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KT SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
...IN PARTICULAR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. MUCH OF THE
CWA HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE CWA. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL GREATLY HINGE ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A
TRACK ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS PREFFERED. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

FLOODING CONCERNS...
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN THE TWO THUNDERSTORMS EVENTS. AT THIS POINT...THE
HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FROM THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER LEANS ME TOWARD NOT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS FIRST
EVENT.

RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECWMF ADVERTIZE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL
RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE I ADD MORE RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/642 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010/
BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF UIN TO NEAR UNO CONTINUES
TO MARCH NORTHEAST AT AROUND 45 KTS. STL AREA STILL HAS A SHOT AT
THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HAVE TEMPOED STRONGER STORMS AT
BOTH STL AND SUS FOR THE FIRST 2 HOURS...HOWEVER EXTRAPOLATION OF
ONGOING ACTIVITY SUGGEST MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL REMAIN S/SE OF
BOTH STL AND SUS SO DID NOT GO TOO LOW WITH THE CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS. ONCE STORMS PASS IT APPEARS
THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OUT OF A MID DECK FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
HOURS...BUT THINK THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE LINE WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY. NAM MOS IS HINTING AT LOTS OF
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORMING OVERNIGHT WITH THE SUSTAINED S FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP BUT AHEAD OF THE SFC DRYLINE. WHILE THIS IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MUCH BETTER
GUIDANCE AS OF LATE...MAINLY EMPHASIZES JUST MID CLOUDS AND HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST TO THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FIRST 60-90 MINUTES OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE...AND
ONCE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MOVE OUT PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
SHOWERS IN THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
JUST EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SC AND MID DECK...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE REFORMATION OF THE SC FORMING A
DECK OF MVFR CIGS.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
337 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR CHESTER. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR CHESTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             MIDDLETOWN              39.13N  91.41W
04/30/2010  E0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
705 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             6 SW STEELVILLE         37.91N  91.43W
04/30/2010  E0.25 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             10 S CHERRYVILLE        37.71N  91.28W
04/30/2010  E0.25 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
726 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W COOK STATION        37.81N  91.46W
04/30/2010                   CRAWFORD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF OFFICE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF VERY LARGE
            TREES COMPLETELY UPROOTED AT HIGHWAY YY AND BURLEY RIDGE
            ROAD

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
729 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     LIGHTNING        CASEYVILLE              38.63N  90.03W
04/30/2010                   ST. CLAIR          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHTING STRUCK TREE...SPLITTING IT IN HALF....

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
742 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     LIGHTNING        4 E SULLIVAN            38.22N  91.10W
04/30/2010                   FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHTING STRUCK TREE...SPLITTING IT IN HALF....

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

SIPPRELL