Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS St. Louis, MO

705 
WGUS73 KLSX 160152
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
852 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ILC027-051-121-160207-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-100616T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLINTON IL-MARION IL-FAYETTE IL-
852 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR FAYETTE...NORTHERN
MARION AND NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
900 PM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3864 8926 3922 8926 3922 8881 3892 8881
      3892 8870 3867 8870

$$

BYRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/124 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE POPS THRU TNGT AND TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FAVORED MDL CONTINUES TO BE THE LOCAL WRF WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING
THE PATTERN VERY WELL. EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING PRECIP ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE CDFNT STILL OVER N CNTL MO...JUST W OF
KIRK. SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST N OF THE STL METRO AREA TNGT
AND QUICKLY MOVE EWD TOMORROW. MDLS SUGGEST TSRA POSS ON WED NGT
INTO THURS AS S/W ROUNDS THE UPA RIDGE WITH GOOD LWR LVL FORCING.
HAVE ADDED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW AS MDLS ALSO SUGGEST MOD CAP
IN PLACE.

TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TRENDED TWD THE WRMR GUIDANCE WITH MDLS
CONT TO WARM WITH EACH RUN. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES
THURS AND FRI. SINCE THESE VALUES ARE SO DEPENDENT UPON DEWPOINT
FORECAST...THESE MAY BE UNDER DONE.

FOR THE EXTD...DISAGREEMENT AMONG MDLS STILL LEAVES UNCERTAINTY FOR
THIS PD. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES REGARDING POPS AS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE
WITH MDLS HINTING AT CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME. MDLS CONT TO WARM
WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TWD THE WARMEST GUIDE AND RAISED TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN...EACH DAY
THRU THE EXTD.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

ANTICIPATION FOR THIS AFTN IS FOR KUIN-KCOU TO REMAIN REMOVED FROM
TSRA CHCS. EXPECT SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS
AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDES EWD.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE MORE PREVALENT
TSRA CHCS ARE GREATER. EXPECT WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HRS OF TAF FCST
FOR KSTL-KSUS BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PSBL IFR. AS
TSRA EJECTS NEWD WITH UPR LVL DISTURBANCE...SWLY WINDS TO RETURN
AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR INTO OVRNGT PD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...TSRA ALREADY APPROACHING TERMINAL FROM THE
SOUTH AND SHOULD IMPACT SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND AMEND AS NECESSARY FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE THREATS. CONFIDENCE LIES THAT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL LAST FOR ONLY THE NEXT FEW HRS AND PROGRESS NEWD
INTO LATER AFTN AND EVNG.

SIPPRELL

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS MAY BE SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS WELL AS CHESTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
OBSERVED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             ALHAMBRA                38.89N  89.73W
06/15/2010  M0.75 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES

0205 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALHAMBRA                38.89N  89.73W
06/15/2010  M1.50 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             JERSEYVILLE             39.12N  90.33W
06/15/2010  M0.70 INCH       JERSEY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 MPH GUSTS

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GLEN CARBON             38.76N  89.97W
06/15/2010  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN UNDER 30 MINUTES WITH WATER COVERING MANY
            OF THE ROADS

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N HIGHLAND            38.84N  89.68W
06/15/2010  E40 MPH          MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND SPEED OF 40 MPH IN GRANT FORK ILLINOIS
            EASTERN MADISON COUNTY

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             ASHLEY                  38.33N  89.19W
06/15/2010  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW OLD RIPLEY         38.94N  89.64W
06/15/2010  E45 MPH          BOND               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI