Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS St. Louis, MO

079 
WGUS73 KLSX 152221
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
521 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

MOC189-510-152236-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-100615T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
521 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ST. LOUIS
AND ST. LOUIS CITY COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 530 PM
CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3877 9017 3871 9020 3869 9020 3866 9018
      3861 9019 3858 9023 3853 9027 3852 9040
      3881 9036 3881 9013 3879 9013

$$

BYRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/124 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE POPS THRU TNGT AND TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FAVORED MDL CONTINUES TO BE THE LOCAL WRF WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING
THE PATTERN VERY WELL. EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING PRECIP ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE CDFNT STILL OVER N CNTL MO...JUST W OF
KIRK. SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST N OF THE STL METRO AREA TNGT
AND QUICKLY MOVE EWD TOMORROW. MDLS SUGGEST TSRA POSS ON WED NGT
INTO THURS AS S/W ROUNDS THE UPA RIDGE WITH GOOD LWR LVL FORCING.
HAVE ADDED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW AS MDLS ALSO SUGGEST MOD CAP
IN PLACE.

TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TRENDED TWD THE WRMR GUIDANCE WITH MDLS
CONT TO WARM WITH EACH RUN. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES
THURS AND FRI. SINCE THESE VALUES ARE SO DEPENDENT UPON DEWPOINT
FORECAST...THESE MAY BE UNDER DONE.

FOR THE EXTD...DISAGREEMENT AMONG MDLS STILL LEAVES UNCERTAINTY FOR
THIS PD. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES REGARDING POPS AS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE
WITH MDLS HINTING AT CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME. MDLS CONT TO WARM
WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TWD THE WARMEST GUIDE AND RAISED TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN...EACH DAY
THRU THE EXTD.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

ANTICIPATION FOR THIS AFTN IS FOR KUIN-KCOU TO REMAIN REMOVED FROM
TSRA CHCS. EXPECT SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS
AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDES EWD.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE MORE PREVALENT
TSRA CHCS ARE GREATER. EXPECT WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HRS OF TAF FCST
FOR KSTL-KSUS BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PSBL IFR. AS
TSRA EJECTS NEWD WITH UPR LVL DISTURBANCE...SWLY WINDS TO RETURN
AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR INTO OVRNGT PD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...TSRA ALREADY APPROACHING TERMINAL FROM THE
SOUTH AND SHOULD IMPACT SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND AMEND AS NECESSARY FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE THREATS. CONFIDENCE LIES THAT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL LAST FOR ONLY THE NEXT FEW HRS AND PROGRESS NEWD
INTO LATER AFTN AND EVNG.

SIPPRELL

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS MAY BE SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS WELL AS CHESTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
OBSERVED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     HAIL             2 E MASCOUTAH           38.51N  89.77W
06/15/2010  E0.88 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 38.68N  90.15W
06/15/2010  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI