Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS St. Louis, MO

089 
WGUS73 KLSX 260452
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1152 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

MOC055-260730-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100526T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD MO-
1152 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER CRAWFORD COUNTY...DOPPLER 
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER A SHORT 
PERIOD OF TIME IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY DURING THE EVENING.
A FEW OF THE SMALL STREAMS IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE MERAMEC RIVER 
WERE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT.  FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS 
AREA...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD STEELVILLE AND THE ONONDAGA CAVE 
STATE PARK.  ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FELL FURTHER SOUTH NEAR COOK 
STATION AND CHERRYVILLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BOURBON...
CUBA...STEELVILLE...CHERRYVILLE AND LEASBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9132 3778 9132 3779 9153 3780 9154
      3821 9154 3820 9111 3778 9111 3774 9111
      3774 9116 3770 9116

$$

CARNEY

391 
WGUS73 KLSX 260727
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
227 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

MOC055-260743-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100526T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD MO-
227 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 230 AM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3770 9132 3778 9132 3779 9153 3780 9154
      3821 9154 3820 9111 3778 9111 3774 9111
      3774 9116 3770 9116

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/350 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010/

VERY LITTLE CINH IN PLACE OVER THE FA ATTM...AND ALL IT REALLY
NEEDS IS A FOCUS...EITHER IN THE FORM OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT BOTH OF WHICH ARE PRESENT. WEAK VORT SITS OVER
THE STL METRO AREA...WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ENTERING INTO
W CNTRL IL AND CNTRL/SERN MO. LOOK FOR SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO
TAKE PLACE NEAR THESE FOCUSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH WHAT
DOES DEVELOP CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING.

HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE AREA...
TAKING UNTIL THURSDAY TO COMPLETELY MOVE THRU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
PCPN CHCS FOR AT LEAST AIRMASS TYPE TSRA...BUT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY...WE WILL ALSO HAVE A MORE PROMINENT FOCUS IN THE FORM
OF THE CDFNT. A MODERATELY STRONG UPR LVL VORT WILL ALSO DRIVE
THRU THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ADDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST POPS GEARED TOWARDS THESE FOCUSES.

MOS TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK OF WHAT WE EXPECT...AND GENERALLY USED
ALTHOUGH PREFERRED THE WARMER...ON AVERAGE...MAV OUTPUT OVER THE
MET.

BONE DRY AIRMASS AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BY FRIDAY...AND SIGNALS
THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...OR AT LEAST FOR MOST OF IT...WITH FEW CLOUDS.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT H500 RIDGE BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT DIFFER ON HOW
FAST TO ACCOMPLISH IT. 00Z/06Z GFS WAS PART OF ONE CAMP THAT
FAVORED A QUICKER BREAKING DOWN OF THIS RIDGE...BUT THE 12Z HAS
SINCE SWITCHED TO THE SLOWER CAMP OF WHICH BELONGED THE BETTER
MEDIUM RANGE VERIFYING ECMWF. THIS SEEMS MORE BELIEVABLE...AND
SHOULD YIELD QUIET WX FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNTIL
PERHAPS THE VERY END ON MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT BY MEMORIAL DAY... PATTERN SHOULD HAVE BROKEN DOWN ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW BY LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY AND WITH THIS...THE
INCREASE OF PCPN CHCS. IN FACT...THE COMBO OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH HINTS AT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THRU THE AREA AND
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK BDRY AT THE SFC SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO MCS
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. SKILL IS NOT THAT GREAT ON
MCS THAT FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ONLY WEAK SIGNALS TO GO ON...SO
HAVE ONLY PLACED SLIGHT CHC PLACEHOLDERS IN THERE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD AT OR A LITTLE BIT
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD LOSE A FEW DEGS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE WEAK BDRY PUSHES INTO SRN MO AND IL.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/558 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010/

BROAD AREA OF SFC HI PRES CONTINUES ACRS MO SEEMINGLY LIMITING
CONVECTION OVER TERMINALS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EVER-PRESENT
WITH INHIBITION NON-EXISTANT. PER LATEST SATELLITE-RADAR TRENDS IT
IS PERHAPS SUBSIDENCE THAT IS THE CULPRIT. WILL FOLLOW WITH VCTS
FOR KCOU-KUIN AND MONITOR INTO EVNG. CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE WITH LGT
AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...VSBYS MAY REDUCE INTO MRNG FOR KUIN BUT
DO NOT BELIEVE TO MVFR. TSRA ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP INTO MIDDAY AS
A WEAK FRONTAL DISTUBANCE EDGES EWD INTO THE BI-STATE RGN. ALTHOUGH
TSRA APPEARS MORE LIKELY SPECIFICS ARE UNCERTAIN...HAVE VCTS FOR
TOMORROW AFTN AND EVNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY...HAVE THUS REMOVED VCTS WORDING. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS. INTO TOMORROW A WEAK FRONTAL
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED EDGE INTO THE RGN. TSRA IS MORE LIKELY
BY MIDDAY INTO EVNG...YET UNCERTAIN IN TIMING AND IMPACT SPECIFICS...
HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW.

SIPPRELL

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED AND
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. SINCE THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING A FEW OF THEM COULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT CHESTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHESTER ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES