Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS St. Louis, MO

461 
WGUS73 KLSX 190823
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
323 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

MOC071-099-113-183-189-190838-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.W.0104.000000T0000Z-100919T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON MO-FRANKLIN MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-LINCOLN MO-
323 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN...ST. CHARLES...ST. LOUIS...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD 
WARNING. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  
IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3879 9013 3874 9023 3867 9031 3858 9032
      3852 9026 3842 9031 3837 9037 3829 9037
      3819 9035 3821 9097 3901 9096 3906 9071
      3895 9068 3887 9061 3888 9055 3897 9043
      3891 9024 3884 9012

$$

SIPPRELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/206 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. WILL
LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 30
KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...BUT FEEL MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STILL APPEARS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER MCS WILL SHIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OBVIOUSLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING...AS THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION
COULD INTERCEPT/DISRUPT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION. TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE SECOND THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH FRONTS STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT THROUGH THE CWA...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/641 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010/

THERE WERE TWO AREAS OF ONGOING TSRA AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE FIRST
AREA STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MO ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BDRY AND
HAD ALMOST REACHED KCOU. THE SECOND AREA WAS A LINE OF DISCRETE
CELLS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. THIS
LINE WAS MOVING SEWD BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR
NOT THIS LINE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE ELY THAN SELY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT NEAR A
STALLED CDFNT INVOF THE MO/IA BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF KCOU/KSTL/KSUS BUT MAY IMPACT KUIN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KUIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL AND NOCTURNAL COOLING PROMOTE LOWERING CLOUD BASES.
CIGS WILL RISE AT KUIN ONCE THE STALLED FNTL BDRY STARTS TO LIFT
NEWD TOMORROW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...LINE OF DISCRETE CELLS WAS LOCATED NORTH OF
KSTL/KSUS AT ISSUANCE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINAL
OR WHETHER THEY WILL WEAKEN AND START TO MOVE EWD. HAVE GONE WITH
THE MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST AND INCLUDED PREVAILING CB MENTION AND A
TEMPO GROUP WITH TSRA BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT SPEED
OF THE LINE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT WILL
BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE CDFNT AND WELL TO THE NORTH OF KSTL/KSUS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
723 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
723 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM
PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
ON SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST.
LOUIS.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
946 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     HAIL             COTTLEVILLE             38.75N  90.65W
09/18/2010  E0.50 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND GST     HARVESTER               38.75N  90.58W
09/18/2010  M40 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
950 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             WELDON SPRING           38.72N  90.65W
09/18/2010  E0.75 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
953 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             1 WSW WELDON SPRING     38.71N  90.67W
09/18/2010  E1.00 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
954 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             WELDON SPRING           38.72N  90.65W
09/18/2010  E1.00 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
958 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     FLOOD            O'FALLON                38.78N  90.71W
09/18/2010                   ST. CHARLES        MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER AT HIGHWAY K AND O FALLON ROAD

&&

JP