Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
738 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/352 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010/

AREA PROFILERS/VWP OBS WERE PICKING UP THE 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ AT H85
THAT WAS SUPPORTING SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS
KS/MO/IA/IL. THIS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN DEPICTED BY
MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS THIS
MORNING.

EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC LOW OVER NRN MO/SRN IA WITH
A WMFNT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH IL/IN AND A CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD
THROUGH KS/OK. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NEWD INTO THE GRTLKS
TODAY WHILE DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH MO/IL. WITH THE SFC WMFNT LOCATED
OVER NRN IL/IN BY AFTN...THE TIMING OF THE CDFNT IS A KEY ELEMENT
FOR DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF AFTN CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER SINCE ITS POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHICH PARTS OF THE CWA ARE
IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE FNT. ATTM...MODEL
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SFC OBS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ORIENTED SW-NE FM FAR NERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH
SWRN MO. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE EFFECT OF SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BDRYS /NOTED ON RADAR FM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/ WHICH MAY FOCUS
TSRA DVLPMT LATER THIS AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
45-55 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CDFNT AND
MLCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H5 JET STREAK IS FCST TO BE
OVER MO/IL THIS AFTN AND MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM GIVEN
PREVIOUSLY SATURATED SOILS...RAINFALL FM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION...AND ANTICIPATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.

APPEARS THAT MOST OF FRI AND FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE CDFNT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON SAT AFTN/EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA/TSRA CHCS TO THE REGION ON SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. THE BETTER PRECIP CHCS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUN/SUN NIGHT. NO CHANGES PAST 12Z SUN.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/735 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010/

OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION HAS MADE IT THROUGH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS
OF 12Z. EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE
NOCTURNAL MCS DISSIPATES OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THEN THE BIG
QUESTION MARK IS IF WE CAN RESET FOR THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. I THINK THOSE CHANCES ARE SMALL AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED
THE TEMPOS AT KSUS AND KSTL AND ONLY HAVE A CB AROUND TIME OF
FROPA.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX
     MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
     IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY
COULD BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

SIPPRELL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
618 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N COLUMBIA            38.98N  92.32W
05/13/2010                   BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BLACKFOOT ROAD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF COLUMBIA IS CLOSED
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW NEWARK            40.04N  92.01W
05/13/2010                   KNOX               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KNOX COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS STATE ROUTE E SOUTH OF KNOX
            CITY IS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
727 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
05/13/2010  M1.71 INCH       KNOX               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NOVELTY                 40.01N  92.21W
05/13/2010  M1.83 INCH       KNOX               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
823 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W CENTRALIA           39.21N  92.17W
05/13/2010                   BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TRI-CITY LAKE ROAD CLOSED AT HWY CC

&&

MILLER