Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF POWERFUL PACIFIC STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WILL BRING HIGH
WINDS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...STRONG WINDS AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH SEAS
AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF VERY POWERFUL STORMS IS POISED TO HIT
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE EVEN MORE POWERFUL
THAN THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THE LAST THREE DAYS.
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ACTIVITY WITH THE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONLY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS LULL WILL END WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS WINDS PICK UP AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
LA...TO ARRIVE IN THE METRO AREA AROUND MID DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL BE WIDESPREAD 40 TO 60 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE GUSTING 60
TO OVER 80 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS BEING IN THE FAVORED PASSES
SUCH AS THE I5 CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURFACE ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTS BEGINNING BEFORE NOON...WITH VERY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTS AND VALLEYS OF
SANTA BARABARA...VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE WINDS OF 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS LINGERING
OVER LA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING...BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE INTENSE...SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT.
LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH 2-4 INCHES IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES. PEAK HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.75-1.00 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL
RATES UP TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES PER HOUR OVER FAVORED SOUTH FACING
SLOPES AND UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOR THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SANTA
BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBSIPO COUNTIES...AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET ELEVATION COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET
WITH UP TO 3 FEET ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SAN GABRIEL RANGE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER STORM WILL RAKE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCED RAINFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS AT LEAST MATCHING THOSE
EXPECTED WITH WEDNESDAYS STORM. BUT THIS STORM WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. INSTEAD OF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...THE SURFACE
FEATURE OF THIS STORM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIGHT AND ONSHORE NEAR
VENTURA COUNTY. THIS WILL GENERATE VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE COLDER WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY UNSTABLE
POSSIBLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE THREAT
FOR WATERSPOUTS AND SMALL TORNADOS.

WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...THINGS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ON FRIDAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY MON NIGHT AND TUE. BOTH THE EC AND GFS CALL FOR AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...GIVING US A
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF MONDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATE MONDAY...THEN MOVING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON TUESDAY
GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...

20/0500Z.

VFR CONDS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A TSTM. ANOTHER POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST FROM 15Z-23Z AND THROUGH L.A. COUNTY FROM
18Z TO 00Z. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CIGS THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE MTN PASSES WILL BE
UNFLYABLE DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY
QUICKLY AND OFTEN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES FROM 15Z TO 00Z.
EAST WINDS FROM 8 TO 12 KT ARE LIKELY FROM 12Z TO AROUND 15Z. VERY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OR GREATER ARE LIKELY
LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY
QUICKLY AND OFTEN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES FROM 15Z TO 00Z.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY LATE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE MDT-SVR
TURBULENCE SFC-070.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
STORM WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...DANIELSON
AVIATION...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...HOFFER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
519 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N VANDENBERG AFB      34.80N 120.52W
01/19/2010  M56.00 MPH       SANTA BARBARA      CA   OTHER FEDERAL

            SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 26 MPH AT VANDENBURG
            RAWS...ELEVATION 1050 FEET.

1012 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE PISMO BEACH       35.13N 120.62W
01/19/2010  E60.00 MPH       SAN LUIS OBISPO    CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH THUNDERSTORM.

1153 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NNE MOUNT WILSON      34.33N 118.03W
01/19/2010  M64.00 MPH       LOS ANGELES        CA   OTHER FEDERAL

            SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 36 MPH AT CHILAO
            RAWS...ELEVATION 5450 FEET.

1155 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE SAN FERNANDO      34.35N 118.42W
01/19/2010  M75.00 MPH       LOS ANGELES        CA   OTHER FEDERAL

            SUSTAINED WEST WINDS 35 MPH AT CAMP NINE RAWS...ELEVATION
            4000 FEET.

1251 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SW AVALON               33.34N 118.33W
01/19/2010  M0.40 INCH       LOS ANGELES        CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL OCCURRED IN 15 MINUTES.

1255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ESE PALOS VERDES ESTA 33.77N 118.32W
01/19/2010  M2.46 INCH       LOS ANGELES        CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL OCCURRED IN 45 MINUTES.

0105 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE LONG BEACH        33.81N 118.11W
01/19/2010  M1.50 INCH       LOS ANGELES        CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING OCCURRING. RAINFALL AMOUNT OCCURRED IN 90
            MINUTES.

0109 PM     FLOOD            5 W LONG BEACH          33.79N 118.25W
01/19/2010                   LOS ANGELES        CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING HAS CLOSED ENTRY TO PORT OF LOS ANGELES
            AND STALLED CARS

0130 PM     WATER SPOUT      10 S SAN PEDRO          33.61N 118.33W
01/19/2010                   PZZ655             CA   COAST GUARD

&&

HALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
745 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N ALTADENA            34.27N 118.15W
01/19/2010  M55.00 MPH       LOS ANGELES        CA   OTHER FEDERAL

            SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 22 MPH AT CLEAR CREEK
            RAWS...ELEVATION 3000 FEET

1100 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE SAN PEDRO         33.72N 118.25W
01/19/2010  M59.00 MPH       PZZ655             CA   MESONET

            SOUTHEAST WIND GUST AT ANGELS GATE.

1100 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW LONG BEACH        33.76N 118.24W
01/19/2010  M75.00 MPH       LOS ANGELES        CA   MESONET

            SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 75 MPH AT BADGER AVE BRIDGE.

&&

HALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
913 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-201415-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
913 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

...POWERFUL AND VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE POWERFUL AND VIGOROUS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...VERY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS...TREACHEROUS MOUNTAIN DRIVING CONDITIONS...AND
HIGH SURF SLAMMING THE BEACHES AND HARBORS.

THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5000
FEET TONIGHT....LOCALLY LOWERING TO 3500 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 8 PM
ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...WITH LOCAL RATES UP TO 1.50 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SOUTH-FACING SLOPES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE INCH TO TWO INCHES OVER COASTS AND
VALLEYS...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES
WHICH COULD FORM OVER LAND OR MOVE ASHORE AFTER FORMING AS
WATERSPOUTS.

VERY STRONG...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...IT COULD BE HIGHLY POSSIBLE OF MANY STORM REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES AREAWIDE. SOME COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS MAY BE UNUSUALLY AFFECTED BY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS POWERFUL STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME THE
STRONGEST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A DECADE TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE FALLING SNOW TO PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES LOCALLY WILL OCCUR AND COMBINE WITH
THE WINDS GUSTING TO POSSIBLY NEAR 75 MPH MAKING TRAVEL THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS TREACHEROUS. TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND SOUTHWEST AND WEST FACING BEACHES
AND HARBORS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TIDES WILL
OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...PRESENTING A THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. SWELLS IN EXCESS
OF 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL COAST BEACHES AND
HARBORS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SWELLS IN EXCESS 10 FEET FOR AREA
BEACHES FROM RINCON BEACH SOUTH TO REDONDO BEACH.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS VIGOROUS AND POWERFUL WINTER STORM.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...OR
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
OF FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

HALL/KAPLAN