Wind Advisory 54, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2010

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR AT WEEKS END WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THEN WARM A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.UPDATE...

WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY ARE STARTING TO PICKUP AGAIN AS THE LATEST NAM-WRF
AND LOCAL 4-KM WRF SOLUTIONS...AND THE CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING. AT
THE CURRENT TIME...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS BEING PONDERED FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE. MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE KSBA-KBFL SURFACE GRADIENTS PEAKING BETWEEN 7
AND 8 MB TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS DEVELOP
ON LATE TONIGHT IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS...WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES CELSIUS GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. IN ADDITION...LOCAL 4-KM
WRF SOLUTIONS INDICATE 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
FAR AS THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...THE ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WINDS ARE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE
ADVISORY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MAY BE EXTENDED DUE TO THE
INCREASING NORTHERLY THERMAL AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SHORTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION ONCE
AGAIN TO NEAR CRITERIA.

WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS AND LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
ARRIVING...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASED FOR THE SOUTH COAST
BASIN ON TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS THAN
WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
REBOUNDING NICELY...THE PACKAGE HAS BEEN WARMED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...OVERALL...12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER FLAT RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THEN AN UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST WIND EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WOULD ONLY EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
VTU/LAX COUNTIES.

WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. ON THURSDAY...WILL EXPECT
SOME WARMING ACROSS INLAND AREA DUE TO WEAKER NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH
NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU/LAX COUNTIES.
HOWEVER FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
COOLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS SHIFT ONSHORE AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DECENT SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...MAINTAINED A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN SOLUTIONS
INDICATING A GENERAL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING (WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES). ANOTHER...WEAKER...SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRAZE FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0550Z.

CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSBA...KVNY...KBUR...AND KLAX

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. A 40 PERCENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. A 40 PERCENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. LGT-ISOLD MDT TURBC SFC-080 THROUGH 16Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...HALL/THOMPSON
AVIATION...ASR
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2010

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-261300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
945 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH ARE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA
VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT LOCAL BEACHES.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THOMPSON/ASR