Wind Advisory 32, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT TUE APR 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE REGION AND DRIFTS AROUND BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING FAIR
SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS EXPECTED IT HELD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO
BRING RAIN WELL INTO LA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST AND BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF LA COUNTY.
THIS NOW PUTS US INTO THE COLDER AND MORE SHOWERY PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM AS THE COLD CORE LOW DROPS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CALIFORNIA.
BECAUSE THE LOW CENTER IS TRACKING MORE INLAND NOW IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND THE CENTRAL COAST WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION
PORTIONS OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH, EVEN WITH THIS
TRACK, THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN ALOFT AND STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE AND AT
ANYTIME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BREAK IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE COLD/UNSTABLE AIR MOVES
IN LATER TONIGHT SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY TODAY AND WELL BEFORE ALL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER, WE
MAY NEED ONE FOR WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE COLDER AIR. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 4000 FT OR
LOWER WED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
GRAPEVINE.

GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR THE COAST AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. DECIDED TO
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVERAGE S OF PT CONCEPTION AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP THERE. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AND COOL WITH A
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. SMALL HAIL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

DRY AND WARMER FRIDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING BUT LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPING THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS SAT, THEN WARMING A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1950Z.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND PRECIPITATION NOW
PUSHING INTO VENTURA COUNTY. OTHERWISE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE IMPACT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KLAX AND KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STEADY RAIN
AFFECTING THE AIRFIELDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.

***NOTE***
THE ASOS EQUIPMENT AT KBUR...KVNY...KHHR...KCMA...AND KOXR HAS A
SOFTWARE ERROR THAT MAY LEAD TO INCORRECT CLOUD HEIGHTS WHEN THERE
ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. OBSERVATIONS AT KBUR WILL BE
QUALITY CONTROLLED 24 HOURS A DAY...OBSERVATIONS AT KVNY WILL BE
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 13Z-07Z...OBSERVATIONS AT KOXR WILL BE
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 15Z-05Z. TAFS FOR KVNY AND KOXR WILL NOT BE
AMENDED FOR CIGS DURING THE TIME THE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MONITORED
AND THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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