Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT EXTENDED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLY MORNING STORMS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STORMS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. SPC HAS PACED A FEW OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX THROUGH 01Z. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SO OVERALL CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A FAST FLAT
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A STRONG JET WILL BE
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
SUNDAY. BY LATE MONDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS A SHALLOW TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF FASTER FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS AND OHIO.

AS A SHALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH...STALL AND THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OVER
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OCCASIONALLY BRING PERIODIC CONVECTION TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 500MB RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW ONE SUCH FEATURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIALLY BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA AS THE 500MB TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE
CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL COOL SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.
EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOWERING TO AROUND 80
BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A COOL FRONT... TRAILING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AT 17Z... WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND THEN DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE
STORMS SHOULD CROSS THE SDF AND LEX TAF SITES SOMETIME BETWEEN 00
AND 03Z. I AM NOT SURE IF THE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS BWG SO I HAVE MENTIONED ONLY VCNTY THERE. OUTSIDE THE
STORMS AND OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS AT BWG IN THE MORNING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
320 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010 /220 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.
THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAKE THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

JA/JSD

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