Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

...FORECAST UPDATE #2...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE FOG WORDING OUT THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED GREATLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE ENTERED SOUTH CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S TO N.  THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG
T-STORMS...POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR TODAY.  A
FEW HAILERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KY.  EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY TO BE HAIL
ALONG THE ENE SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.  THE AMOUNT OF SFC
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
SEVERE THREAT.  LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS
REGION WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST UPDATE #1...

AREA OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INCLUDING
ASOS...AWOS...AND WEB CAMS REVEAL SOME PRETTY DENSE WIDESPREAD FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE.  THEREFORE WILL UPGRADE THE SPS
TO A DENSE FOG ADVY TILL 9AM EST...8AM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE BLUEGRASS...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG AND WILL CONTINUE THE SPS FOR THE KY
COUNTIES...ADDING A FEW MORE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA.  THIS WILL RUN TILL 9AM EST AS WELL.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN BURNS OFF THE
FOG.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES. THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A S/W OVER
ARKANSAS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY LATER TODAY. SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH (HOPEFULLY) BETTER
RESULTS THAT THURSDAY. I DO THINK THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
UPPER SUPPORT WHICH WAS LACKING THURSDAY. ON THAT NOTE SPC HAS
PLACED A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL.
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE
JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE COOL FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW OVER IOWA WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY SHIFT
QUICKLY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POPS IN THAT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE WEST TO
MID 60S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.  CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOW THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND OFF TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE WITH US DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN BEING LOCATED JUST TO OUR
NORTH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP BACK INTO KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER VA.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE FOR SAT/SUN...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING FOUND IN AN E-W AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
OHIO.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY AS THIS SLOW SYSTEM FINALLY GAINS SOME DISTANCE FROM
US.  FOR NOW...STILL THINK THAT DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY COMMENCE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY/SUN SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWER-MID 50S ON MONDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT TO SEA...NEW LONGER RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING
ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.  BOTH THE 12/00Z GFS
AND EURO SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.  THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW
A WIDE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...PLAN ON KEEPING THE
INHERENT FCST DRY HERE...BUT IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME THAT WE MAY
NEED TO ADD PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS FOR WED-THU.
CURRENT TEMPS LOOK OK HERE WITH MID-UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER
30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A VARIETY OF WEATHER CONCERNS WILL MAKE THIS A TOUGH TAF FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST WE HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AT BWG AND A COUPLE OF OTHER NON TAF AIRPORTS.
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WE WILL ALSO HAVE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TRACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....JA
LONG TERM......MJ
AVIATION.......JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1100 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-130930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1100 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 /1000 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE HEAVIEST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
ACCOMPANYING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TODAY.

JA/AML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1058 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

KYZ028-045-046-053-054-063>065-121645-
GREEN-HARDIN-HART-LARUE-MARION-NELSON-TAYLOR-WASHINGTON-
1058 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...

AT 955 AM CST/1055 AM EST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MUNFORDVILLE TO CAMPBELLSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...AND SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR LEBANON AROUND 1120 AM EST.
  NEAR SPRINGFIELD AROUND 1135 AM EST.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
93 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10
AND 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8534 3727 8542 3729 8584 3782 8585
      3778 8513 3726 8523 3726 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 178DEG 36KT 3738 8579 3734 8534

AML

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