Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM
MADISON TO LOUISVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 50 TO 65 MPH. NUMEROUS CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS
LINE AND HAVE PROMPTED MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS ALONG THIS LINE.
FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEY SHOULD REACH A LEXINGTON TO BURKESVILLE LINE IN AN HOUR TO AN
HOUR AND A HALF.

AHEAD OF THIS LINE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAD
TIGHTENED UP. WINDS AT LEXINGTON PEAKED AT 56 MPH LAST HOUR. WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORMS. BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS IN
FRONT OF THE LINE. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

...FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR THE RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 722.
SEE WCNLMK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SQUALL LINE TO OUR WEST BARRELING DOWN ON OUR CWA QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. THE LINE WILL REACH OUR FAR WRN CWA...OUR WESTERN
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES BY 930AM EDT...BUT THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LINE WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH OUR SW CWA. PROBABLY BY 1030AM
EDT.

MAIN THREATS WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS SQUALL LINE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...

WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NOW HAS A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE MOVING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING AT ILX INDICATED
A RAPID UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...UP TO 1.51 INCHES...JUST
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND IN LINE WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR NOW.
MODELS CALL FOR PW'S TO INCREASE FURTHER TO BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8
INCHES AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE. THAT
FLOW...ROUGHLY 50-55 KNOTS AT 3 KFT AS PER LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE...IS ALSO CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR AND HELICITY TO MAINTAIN THE
LINE AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF IT.

WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. GFS HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
PREDICTED BY THE NAM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW GOING FOR 65-75 KNOTS AT 850
MB AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE STRONGER CELLS THAT
FORM ALONG THE LINE.

OF NOTE IS HOW THE LATEST HRRR...THE 04Z RUN...IS HANDLING THE
FORECAST...AND IS IN LINE WITH OUR THINKING. IT DOES SHOW SEVERAL
DISCRETE CELLS FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE BY MID MORNING
OVER THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE MERGING INTO ONE MAIN LINE JUST AFTER
NOON.

BASED ON STANDARD SUITE OF MODELS AS WELL AS HIGHER RESOLUTION
ONES...FOR NOW THE BEST GUESS AT THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL
BE AROUND 14-15Z OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...16-18Z FROM KSDF TO
KBWG...AND 18-21Z OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS.
TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE.

THROUGH THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THAT LINE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

ONCE THE FRONT IS CLEAR OF THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING
SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
SURPRISING AFTER SUCH A STRONG FRONT TO NOT GET COOLER THAN
THIS...BUT THE NEXT DRY FRONT COMING IN THE LONG TERM WILL DO THAT
JOB...SEE BELOW.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SUNDAY)...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...

A PRETTY QUIET SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AFTER TODAY/S SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA. WED AND THURS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS SFC ISOBARS
REMAIN CLOSELY PACKED.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 MPH RANGE WED/THURS AFTERNOONS.

COLD AIR BEHIND TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
THURS WHEN A COOLER MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION EARLY
IN THE DAY. SO WE/LL BE WARM FOR WED UNDER SW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THURS/FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S.  THEN THE AIRMASS WILL START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

WE HAVE FROST POTENTIAL FOR TWO NIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.  WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD FROST OVER THE AREA FOR THURS NIGHT.  FRIDAY NIGHT/S
FROST LOOKS TO COVER MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-65 AS WARMER AIR STARTS
TO INVADE THE WEST PREVENTING FROST.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MAKE IT/S
WAY INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTENSIFYING AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES AND DIVES DOWN INTO TEXAS.  SFC CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO
COMMENCE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW BY MON/TUES TIME FRAME BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO OUR AREA BY LATE MON THROUGH WED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

LATEST VWP INDICATES WINDS OF 50-60 KTS AT 3 KFT. WIND SHEAR LESS OF
A PROBLEM AS SURFACE WINDS ARE PICKING UP...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT OF ALL
TAFS EXCEPT FOR KLEX. STILL EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO TRANSLATE DOWN
BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AROUND 35
KNOTS. STRONGER STORMS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 50-60 KNOTS BUT AM GOING A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE IN THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. STILL HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS...AND HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE NOW
THAT THE SQUALL LINE MOTION HAS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STORMS POPPING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE EXPECT
THE SQUALL LINE TO REACH EACH STATION.

BEHIND THE FRONT WIND WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
GUSTY THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE SUN SETS
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BELOW 10KT AND ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

MESOSCALE......EER
SHORT TERM.....RJS
LONG TERM......AML
AVIATION.......RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
904 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-262100-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
904 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010 /804 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM EDT...3PM CDT...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM EDT...7PM CDT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...PRODUCING A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THESE STORMS...WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AS WELL AS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...EXPECT GENERAL WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO OVER
45 MPH. DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST WEST ROADS SHOULD
USE CAUTION AS DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO REPORT DAMAGING
WINDS OF ANY KIND.

RJS/AML/AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1152 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FORDSVILLE              37.64N  86.72W
10/26/2010                   OHIO               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000574

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1202 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
10/26/2010  M56 MPH          FAYETTE            KY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000575

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     TSTM WND DMG     READY                   37.37N  86.47W
10/26/2010                   GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT 1471 DECKER SCHOOL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000576

CMC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE MOUNT WASHINGTON   38.08N  85.51W
10/26/2010  E75 MPH          BULLITT            KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            MARKWELL LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000578

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1211 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWNSVILLE             37.19N  86.26W
10/26/2010                   EDMONSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ON HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000579

CMC