Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS DISCUSSION ABBREVIATED DUE TO ONGOING
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MCS HAS MADE ITS WAY TO TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ALONG ITS NORTHERN
END IN EASTERN IL/WESTERN IN. THESE STORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
IN COVERAGE...WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS AND SCATTERED POPS AFTER 2 AM TO
ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE GONE WITH
THE HI RES HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER...FELT THAT LOW CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED CONSIDERING HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT IS AND EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW NEARING.
COULD GET ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT IN INDIANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT ENOUGH AND SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD SKIRT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS THE ONGOING STORMS ARE CONCERNED...CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND EXPECT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE PILING IN THE AREA SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL. SOME AREAS HAVE RECENTLY HAD
A LOT OF HEAVY RAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WITH REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT...FREEZING LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY SO LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
HAVE ONLY GONE WITH ISOLATED POPS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER SOLID
CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I 64. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST BASED
ON HOW UNPREDICTABLE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
WILL APPROACH POPS IN TERMS OF CHANCE OF OCCURRING RATHER THAN
COVERAGE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FALLING SHORT OF THE 90 DEGREE
MARK SO THE SPS FOR HEAT INDICES WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z. HAVE
GONE NEAR THE LOWEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH THE
MERCURY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WETTER THAN THE REST...AS REGION
WILL BE IN A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH. TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF
THE FLOW. GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN ABNORMALLY
MOIST...CANNOT RULE OUT STORM ACTIVITY AT ANY TIME...BUT WILL KEEP
COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR NOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF RIDGE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO ISOLATED TO PERHAPS LOW-END
SCATTERED AT BEST...DESPITE A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE OVER THEN NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
RIDGE CENTER. THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE.

FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE HINT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFTLY SUBTLY SOUTH AS TROUGHING TO THE NORTH TRIES TO DOMINATE
AGAIN. THAT COULD SEND US INTO A SIMILAR RAINY PATTERN AS WE ARE IN
NOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FASTER FLOW IN BETWEEN. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED...NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO STAY IN
CONTROL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DO NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF IN THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

IT LOOKS AS IF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR TONIGHT AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMING TOPS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS SDF AND POSSIBLY LEX TONIGHT WITH BWG REMAINING
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE MINIMUM VFR
WITH MOST ABOVE 8K FT. WE WILL MENTION MVFR VSBYS AT BWG AND LEX
AFTER 09Z AND WILL ALSO MENTION VCTS AFTER 14Z MONDAY AT ALL
LOCATIONS. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........BJS
LONG TERM.........RJS
AVIATION..........JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-190830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010 /545 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS REGIONS OF
KENTUCKY CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BEGIN TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

JA

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