Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

A SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE WEAKER SOUTHERN JET
ACTUALLY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
HAD BROUGHT SOME MODIFIED LESS HUMID CONTINENTAL AIR TO INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT SO FAR...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY MADE IT TO
THE BLUEGRASS REGIONS. UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.

THE FORECAST SOUNDING EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD HINTED AT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION. WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS WITH DEEP VERTICAL EXTEND DID DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FORMED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT
ALONG THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE BORDER.

THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH IS ONLY AROUND 10%...SO
DEPENDING ON HOW THE RADAR LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE...MAY
KEEP EVEN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
CELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AROUND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CU WILL ERODE WITH COOLING THIS EVENING.

A SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAVE THE BLUEGRASS...WHERE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG OR HAZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
PRE-DAWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND WITHIN THE MORE HUMID
AIR ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT TOMORROW...A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY BY EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEAR MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

A MESSY LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER EAST AS IT IS
REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SIT IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...PERHAPS
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. BEING POSITIONED IN THIS MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

UPPER VORTS ARE SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONVECTION...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE FORECAST
DURING THESE TIME PERIODS.

COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE OUTBREAKS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.

THOUGH MOS POPS SHOW LIKELIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
ABOVE CLIMO POPS AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR PATTERNS TOO NEBULOUS TO GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WILL RELUCTANTLY KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW. THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THAT
TIME...POSSIBLY BLOCKING THE GULF. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO SWELL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S.  HAVING SAID
THAT...MODELS DO STILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO TAME AIR TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER THAT MOIST SURFACE FLOW WILL TAKE DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S MAKING FOR VERY UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE
HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL STILL RISE INTO THE 90S...POSSIBLY REACHING
100 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH 21Z WITH BASES ABOVE 4K FEET AND PERHAPS 40 TO 50% CLOUD
COVERAGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM 18Z THROUGH 22Z NEAR
BWG...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO SPARCE AS TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION INTO
BWG TAF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.

HAZE IS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT LEX...AND AS LOW AS ONE TO TWO MILES AT BWG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........JSD
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........JSD

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