Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF MY CWA BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z. WOULD EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINS TO END AS THIS AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST.
BEST CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL DYNAMICS TO COINCIDE WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
AROUND 6Z OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON SPEED OF LOW
LEVEL JET...MORE 30-40 KNOTS INSTEAD OF 40-50 KNOTS. SO NOT AS
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH QPF GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS IS. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY 2-3
INCHES IN THREE HOURS AND THIS IS RIGHT ON THE RANGE OF EXPECTED
PRECIP. AFTER COORDINATION WITH IND AND ILN WILL BE GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN MY CWA FROM
00Z TO 16Z.

AS FOR THE DAY SATURDAY...PROBABLY WILL SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN. HAVE SOME TIME BUILT INTO THE WATCH IN CASE
THE RAIN EVENT LASTS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. LATER...AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS BACK IN...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MUGGY...AND WITH CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING SUN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TRY AND REACH 90.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

DIDN/T MAKE MANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WAS ONGOING CONVECTION.

SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...

WE/LL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING TO OUR SOUTH WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES RIDING NORTH ALONG THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA FOR SAT
NIGHT-TUES.  WHILE CONVECTION WILL NOT BE CONSTANT...WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL EPISODES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THROUGH TUES.
WITH THESE FAST MOVING WAVES...IT/S HARD TO PICK OUT THE BEST TIME
FOR CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR IN
PLACE...FAVORED TIMES SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAY TIME
HEATING...AND EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ PEAKS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
SUN-TUES...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...

HAVE KEPT THE WED-FRI FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD IN PATTERN SOLNS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  WHILE 0Z ECMWF
KEEPS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH AND FAST MOVING WAVES OVER OUR
REGION...THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WE/LL PROBABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...BUT IT/S
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TIME WITH SUCH A BIG PATTERN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY WILL BE
ISSUING AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF STORMS AS BANDS DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF
TAF SITES. WITH STORMS CAN SEE IFR VSBY'S IN HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO HAVE A DIURNAL WEAKNESS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW COMBINES WITH A DEVELOPING THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
PROVIDES DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE CLOSER TO KSDF...SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP IN FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT TOO HIGH.

SHOULD BE A LULL IN COVERAGE AFTER THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOIST...SO ANY HEATING WILL SPARK OFF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ032.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-112000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 /932 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. RUNOFF PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAY BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL PEAK
IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

JA/JSD/RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
203 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HAIL             MAMMOTH CAVE            37.20N  86.10W
06/11/2010  E0.70 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   PUBLIC

            GUSTY WINDS WITH TREE DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000355

NF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
224 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

KYZ027-028-053-062>064-074-111900-
BARREN-EDMONSON-GRAYSON-GREEN-HARDIN-HART-LARUE-
124 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND
GUSTY WINDS...

AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
LEITCHFIELD TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLASGOW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
   LEITCHFIELD...
   MUNFORDVILLE...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 43 AND 81.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 8614 3706 8612 3708 8619 3711 8623
      3710 8625 3728 8646 3736 8649 3739 8660
      3744 8664 3758 8642 3757 8637 3759 8635
      3760 8628 3769 8621 3735 8549 3697 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 230DEG 18KT 3744 8648 3711 8599

AML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
228 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

KYZ036-037-041-042-048-049-056-057-111900-
BOURBON-CLARK-FAYETTE-GARRARD-HARRISON-JESSAMINE-MADISON-SCOTT-
228 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OWENTON TO LEXINGTON TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NICHOLASVILLE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
   PARIS...
   CYNTHIANA...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 69 AND 94.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 104 AND 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8419 3766 8460 3801 8457 3836 8474
      3851 8455 3851 8451 3854 8449 3854 8444
      3857 8442 3857 8429 3837 8420 3837 8421
      3836 8419 3830 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 228DEG 28KT 3845 8466 3808 8448
          3781 8450

JBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

INZ077-111900-
WASHINGTON-
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROWNSTOWN TO 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...VERY  HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
   SALEM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8617 3879 8609 3877 8605 3876 8600
      3875 8599 3876 8592 3873 8589 3862 8589
      3841 8622 3842 8630 3879 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 231DEG 30KT 3888 8611 3850 8620

JBS

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