Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
438 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE SILVER STATE...WITH DRIER WEATHER LIKELY FURTHER WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS ALOFT
TURN MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PLENTY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT
PRESENT...COURTESY OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE CONTINUED
SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
KEEP CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI'S AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH
BECOMING LESS INTENSE AND MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...SO
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AGAIN BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
MAY ALSO HELP SPARK OFF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO ANYONE
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY.
HOWEVER...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO CAUSE ACTIVITY TO CEASE
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TOMORROW EVENING. THE FLOW WILL ALSO
TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY ALOFT AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO IT
LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT MORE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY...MOSTLY
STAYING IN THE 80S IN MANY VALLEYS...THOUGH GREATER SUNSHINE
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE STARTING OFF THE EXTENDED...WITH A 500MB HIGH OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BACK INTO UTAH AND
ARIZONA...AND TO OUR WEST...A TROF SITTING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE THRU THE EXTENDED IS MONSOON
FLOW...OR LACK THEREOF...AS MEAN RIDGE AND TROF POSITIONS REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY...WITH 500MB FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA VARYING
FROM S TO SW.

THRU THE EXTENDED...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEVADA...AND LOWER WEST. THE GFS HAS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... WITH AN INCREASING
TREND SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT WITH
A BIT MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A BIT LESS THAN THE
GFS SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. LOOKING AT PW'S...THEY ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH FRIDAY...AND THEN LOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...NEAR OR BELOW 0.50 INCHES...AS A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY DRIES THE AREA OUT. THE EXCEPTION IS WHITE
PINE COUNTY...WHERE PW'S PERIODICALLY REACH 0.75 INCHES.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POPS
AND WX GRIDS. REA

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD BASES
BETWEEN 6000 AND 12000 FT...AND ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS IN TSTMS. TSTM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TSTMS. CLOUD BASES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT...LOCALLY LOWER IN
TSTMS...WITH ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS. OUTFLOW GUSTS IN THE VCNTY OF
TSTMS THIS EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY MAY APPROACH 40 KTS. REA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS WILL BE THE RULE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...SO WHILE LIGHTNING WILL BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...NO RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY
PREVAILING. A MODEST DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY WEEK'S END
WITH A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/90/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NVZ013-030>037-280945-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
237 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST THREAT. THE HIGHEST LIKELY HOOD OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEVADA IN
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE STRAIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NVZ032-034-272215-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY NV-
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
PDT...

AT 230 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF LEE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4089 11527 4074 11509 4049 11544 4060 11558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 056DEG 0KT 4059 11541

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
304 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NVZ031-032-272230-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
304 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
PDT...

AT 300 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF RYNDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4133 11542 4121 11516 4089 11544 4098 11565
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 210DEG 22KT 4102 11548

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
359 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NVZ031-032-034-272330-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE
NV-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
359 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
PDT...

AT 350 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL EASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4118 11495 4109 11456 4081 11494 4092 11512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 233DEG 37KT 4105 11472

JH