Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
309 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SILVER STATE
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. DRIER AIR
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUASI-STATIONARY MID-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
60-70KT JET CENTERED OVER THE SILVER STATE. JET STREAK EXIT REGION
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE STRAIGHT INTO THE NIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS
THEN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
NV AT THIS HOUR. TODAY LOOKS INTERESTING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
....SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S...40KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND
A SURFACE-700MB CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER EASTERN NV...AND CAPE VALUES
FORECASTED TO REACH 600-900J/KG. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS COULD
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. BIGGEST
THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON.

A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE INTO CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...THIS
FEATURE COULD KEEP NOCTURNAL CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORE OF
THE SAME IS EXPECTED WITH AN EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE REACHING
EASTERN NV...AS PWAT VALUES PEAK OVER AN INCH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OVER
EASTERN NV. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERSISTENT PATTERN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION
OF THE COUNTRY AND BLOCK THE PATTERN FROM BEING PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
SILVER STATE. A RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL
MEAN A DRIER REGIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES WHILE
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE STATE. EACH AFTERNOON
THEREAFTER MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE TENDING TOWARDS DRY VARIETY AGAIN AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW 0.5 INCHES ALL AROUND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PW VALUES
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY PER THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER MODEL AGREEMENT
BEGINS TO WAVER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSH CONTINUES INTO THE STATE. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALL OVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WINDS EXCEEDING
58 MPH. THESE STRONG STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KELY HOWEVER
WITH STORMS MOVING NORTHERLY...KEKO COULD GET SOME STRONG
ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE
AREA CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER
WORKING INTO THE SILVER STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW WET/DRY STORMS OVER FWZ 467 THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVG
OVER THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH VALUES UP TO 90% IN SOME AREAS.
OVERALL THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO LOW FIRE WX
THREATS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

95/92/92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NVZ013-030>037-280945-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
237 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST THREAT. THE HIGHEST LIKELY HOOD OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEVADA IN
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE STRAIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.