Tornado Warning 49, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...
NO NEED STATING THE OBVIOUS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRUOGH
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE DAY IS DONE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE CORE TOPPING THE AREA AS WELL. FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE FOUND MAILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR THOSE AREAS AND 10 KNOTS
OR BETTER FOR THE REMAINDER. THE HIGHS CORE MOVES OVER WED NIGHT
KEEPING FREEZING TEMPS IN THE FCAST. THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH SAT BEFORE MOVING EAST
AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE
THINGS GET INTERESTING...DEPENDING ON WHICH GLOBAL SOLUTION YOU
LIKE.

BOTH THE EURO AND THE NORTH AMERICAN SUITES ARE INITIALIZING VERY
WELL. THEREFORE...MUST GO WITH EXPERIENCE AS WE APPROACH THE END
OF THE 7TH DAY GOING INTO THE 8TH DAY. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS DIG AN
UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH BUT THEY DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE SW. THE GFS
ERODES THE LOW WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT IN TACT. THE IN TACT
SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER LOWS WOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH TEMPS THAT ARE WARMER THAN ITS CORE WHICH WOULD
CAUSE IT TO STAY TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST. IT WOULD THEN OPEN UP
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SINCE THE TEMP STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THEM WILL BE OF LITTLE DIFFERENCE. THIS IS THE EURO
SCENARIO. NOW COMES THE BIG PROBLEM...BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF
THIS UPPER LOW STAYS IN TACT...WHICH IT SHOULD...A STRONG GULF LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL SLING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
BACK OVER THIS COLD AIR BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING
AND A BUNCH OF OTHER THINGS CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE WITH THIS
BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO BE WEARY OF AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES EACH SITE THIS
MORNING. 4-5K FT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH NOON AT BTR AND
CLEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY DARK. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM
TODAY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THINGS WILL EASE BY EVENING AND STAY THAT
WAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLY THROUGH WED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS. VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAKING VERY DANGEROUS
SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THINGS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT WED
NIGHT INTO THU AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  28  56  30 /  50   0   0   0
BTR  70  31  59  32 /  50   0   0   0
ASD  71  32  57  32 /  70   0   0   0
MSY  71  37  58  37 /  70   0   0   0
GPT  71  33  58  31 / 100  10   0   0
PQL  72  33  57  31 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-011000-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
357 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TORNADO WATCH 757 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
WILKINSON COUNTY...POINTE COUPEE AND WEST FELINCIANA PARISHES
UNTIL 11 AM. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL IT PASSES.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO GULFPORT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY CAUSING DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO GULFPORT.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...STORM SPOTTERS AND OTHER PUBLIC SAFETY
OFFICIALS SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL. WE CAN BE REACHED BY
PHONE AT 9 8 5...6 4 9...0 3 5 7 OR 5 0 4...5 2 2...7 3 3 0. TO
SPEAK WITH A FORECASTER...USE EXTENSION 4.

LAZ034-035-MSZ068-300715-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING POINTE COUPEE
PARISH...WILKINSON COUNTY...WEST FELICIANA PARISH...

AT 1220 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF SIMMESPORT...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
WEST OF BATCHELOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BATCHELOR...LETTSWORTH...FORT ADAMS AND WOODVILLE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

95/DM

LAZ038>040-050-056>062-065>067-MSZ077-080-301345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
549 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING WASHINGTON
PARISH...LIVINGSTON PARISH...TANGIPAHOA PARISH...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
PARISH...ST. CHARLES PARISH...ASSUMPTION PARISH...ST. JAMES PARISH...
PEARL RIVER COUNTY...HANCOCK COUNTY...JEFFERSON PARISH...ORLEANS
PARISH...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...TERREBONNE PARISH...

AT 545 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15 MILES WEST OF COVINGTON TO 53
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROBERT BY 555 AM...
  GARYVILLE BY 605 AM...
  FOLSOM AND THIBODAUX BY 610 AM...
  SCHRIEVER AND RESERVE BY 615 AM...
  EDGARD BY 625 AM...
  LAPLACE AND GRAY BY 635 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

24/RR