Tornado Warning 38, NWS New Orleans, LA

022 
WWUS54 KLIX 021535
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1035 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

LAC007-021544-
/O.CAN.KLIX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-101102T1600Z/
ASSUMPTION LA-
1035 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL ASSUMPTION PARISH IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER IS 
SEVERE...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS ARE STILL LIKELY. 

LAT...LON 3006 9115 3007 9096 2982 9098 2983 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 184DEG 10KT 2996 9105

$$
BANNAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
REGIONAL RADARS DO A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF OF LA TO THE CWA. WITH SUCH EXPANSIVE AREAL COVERAGE...100 PCT
SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A HOUMA TO GULFPORT
LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED STORMS THAT COULD POSE A PROBLEM IN
VERY FLOOD PRONE AREAS BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE...GOING TO BE A VERY LIMITED THREAT ON
THAT SIDE TOO. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MORE CONDUCE JUST WEST OF
THE CWA TOWARDS LCH AND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE STATE. RUC SOUNDING
DID INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE MID LEVELS AND
BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS BY 18Z. LAPSE RATES HOWEVER ARE GOING TO BE
VERY WEAK AND NOT MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT FOR DOWN DRAFT WINDS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR 2 BECOMES SEVERE TODAY AND THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADO OR A STRONG WIND GUST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR RAIN CHANCES. A BAND
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AROUND A BTR TO MSY LINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE. DONT EXPECT TEMPS WILL FALL TO MUCH AND REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE HASN/T CHANGED
MUCH...WHICH IS A GOOD THING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS
WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THURSDAY AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON INTO THE
GULF. MAY NEED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF RAIN ENDING IN THE GRIDS.
WINDS HAVING ALREADY BEEN NORTHERLY BY THEN WILL HAVE COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY THURS AND
FRI AND STAY IN PLACE SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND LOWS AS MUCH AS 15 ON SATURDAY MORNING AS SETUP WILL BE
QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR TEMPS TO FALL. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND EXTEND ACROSS THE SERN CONUS.

SERLY FLOW WILL RESUME LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT MOISTURE TO RETURN AND TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE OF AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BTR...HUM AND MCB
BY 12Z. VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL CAUSE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
INTERMITTENT THROUGHOUT TODAY AND EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR DUE RAIN/MIST VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG WITH LOWERED CEILINGS. 18

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  59  69  52 / 100  80  70  60
BTR  74  62  73  54 / 100  90  90  70
ASD  74  63  75  60 / 100  90  80  70
MSY  75  65  78  60 / 100  90  90  80
GPT  74  63  76  59 /  90  80  70  60
PQL  75  65  76  61 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-030900-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
349 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. LOCALLY
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OR 2 IS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 10
FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LAZ056-059-021545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
953 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING ASSUMPTION
PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...

AT 950 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF NAPOLEONVILLE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
WEST OF LABADIEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LABADIEVILLE

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CAB