Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BECOME SHEARED OUT
AND ABSORBED INTO JET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AS THIS OCCURS. A WEAK TROUGH LEFT OVER THE AREA SUN WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BECOME
ABSORBED BY A TROUGH IN THE MID LATITUDE JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF DEPARTURE AND A WEAK
TROUGH LINGERING THROUGH THE AREA FOR SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUN ACROSS THE CWA. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SHOULD DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS A RIDGE
NOSES INTO THE AREA. BY MON MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE DOMINATING
AND BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. HIGHER TEMPS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE FOR AN ELEVATED HEAT INDEX. MON SHOULD SEE A HEAT INDEX OVER
100 DEGREES F. BFG

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK SHOWING A DOMINATING RIDGE WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMP IN CONJUNCTION WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPS. THE END OF
THE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING A REPRIEVE WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING. ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL BE A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION PEAKING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING
THEN TAPER OFF. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL BRING SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI HAS TRIGGERED ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATER. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIGHTER
THAN TODAY. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THINGS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO
QUIET DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION LEAVING
THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER RAIN FREE. AS FOR WINDS IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT
TODAY AND LIKELY DROP TO 2-3 FT TOMORROW AND MORE AROUND 2 FEET FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CAB/JER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  93  77  96 /  20  40  10  20
BTR  72  95  75  96 /  30  40  10  20
ASD  76  93  77  95 /  30  50  10  20
MSY  74  92  75  94 /  30  50  10  20
GPT  77  91  77  94 /  30  50  10  20
PQL  75  91  76  94 /  30  50  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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