Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERING MECHANISM
TODAY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
WRF...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT
WITH STORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. DRYING OUT THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND WILL BE CONFINED TO AFTERNOON
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF FLIP FLOPPING GOING ON BY THE LONG
RANGE MODELS. THE GFS...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HAS BEEN THE
DRIEST AND MORE CONSISTENT IN THIS SOLUTION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS NOW TRENDING CLOSER TO THE GFS. BOTH MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A STRONG RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS STABILIZED THE ATM FOR A SHORT
WHILE AND CU FIELD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ATM HAS RECOVERED...BECOMING UNSTABLE AGAIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE IN VICINITY OF MCB AND GPT BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY OR THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
AFFECT MCB...BTR...HSA AND GPT BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH/ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RELAXED AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETREAT NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW THURSDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW BELOW 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  87  61  87 /  20  20  20  20
BTR  68  89  67  89 /  20  20  20  20
ASD  67  88  65  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  71  88  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
GPT  69  87  65  85 /  20  20  20  10
PQL  66  88  64  87 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-181630-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1124 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MARINE HAZARDS...
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

RIVER FLOODING...
MINOR FLOODING OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR RED RIVER LANDING AND
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR MORGAN CITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MINOR FLOODING OF THE
BILOXI RIVER AND THE TCHOUTACABOUFFA RIVER IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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