River Flood Warning 2, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

.AVIATION...
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH RAIN
COVERAGE. THESE FEATURES WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER RAINFALL...BTR...MSY AND MCB MAY RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z THURSDAY. GPT WILL REMAIN AT THE
TOP END OF IFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1041 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-211645-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1041 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN AT 9 PM TODAY FOR THE OPEN GULF
COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. CAUTION
STATEMENTS MAY BE POSTED FOR THE LAKES BY THIS EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING...
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR MORGAN CITY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERE WEATHER...
A SECOND STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.

RIVER FLOODING...
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR MORGAN
CITY THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC
SAFETY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

95/DM

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