Wind Advisory 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

999
WWUS74 KLCH 152056
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
256 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

.GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS.

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-160000-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-101216T0000Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
256 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 34 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

WINDS OVER LOCAL WATERWAYS COULD BE 5 MPH HIGHER THAN OVER LAND.
SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...PRODUCING A BKN-OVC DECK AROUND 3500-4000 FT MAINLY NORTH
OF SRN TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT WITH OVC040 AT KAEX AND PREVAILING SCT DECK AT REMAINING
LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KLCH WHERE A PATCHY FOG AND SOME
RESIDUAL SMOKE FM A WILDFIRE SE OF THE AIRPORT IS REDUCING VISBYS
TO AROUND 2-3 SM. VISBYS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 8Z-9Z.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT.
SRLY WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TARGET...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST UP A LITTLE OVER EAST TEXAS
WITH WINDS/CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL COOLING.
INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST
PROGS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PART OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WILL LET MID CREW FURTHER EVALUATE.

MARINE HAZARDS WERE RETAINED AS IS WITH BUILDING WINDS/SEAS
WARRANTING SCEC/SCA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010/

AVIATION...
A SWATH OF STRATOCU EXTENDS ACRS THE AREA...BASED AROUND 4 KFT.
DESPITE THE SCT-BKN LAYER...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN
STRENGTHEN ABV 10 KT AFTER 15Z WED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ORIENTATION PROVIDING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW AREA-WIDE. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 40S AT BPT RECIPIENT OF AN
EARLIER SOUTHEASTERLY AND NOW STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. AEX AND
SURROUNDING AREA MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME STRATOCU PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT
AROUND 5K FT.

LOOKING AT A FEW DAYS OF RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING FRONT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MILD
SOUTHERLIES INTO THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL BUT CONTINUED DRY. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND ADVANCES OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO STRENGTHEN
SURFACE WINDS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME APPEARS
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE THE CALL.
OTHERWISE HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVELS HUMIDIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME BUT
TOPPED OFF WITH PLETHORA OF DRY AIR ABOVE. CAN AT THIS TIME
ENVISION NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS. THUS HAVE OPTED TO RETURN TO
A 10 PERCENT QUIET RAIN CHANCE.

FRONT TRUDGES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. BETTER CHANCES COME POST-FRONTAL AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA AND WEST GULF SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

MARINE...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY
FRIDAY...STALL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE...THEN EXIT
EAST SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  49  71  61  73 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  55  72  61  74 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  42  66  56  71 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  45  68  62  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
543 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-151200-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
543 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AS
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY" WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT POST-FRONTAL RAIN...
BEFORE COMING TO AN END ON SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.