Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
434 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE THE FUTURE OF WHAT WAS ONCE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5. LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE THE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TD5 HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS REMNANT LOW MAY REORGANIZE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS IT TURNS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...WITH NHC GIVING THE SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT. LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD BUT REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...TAKING THE SYSTEM INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY...THEN TURNING IT MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUCH
A TRACK WILL GIVE FORMER TD5 LITTLE TIME TO REORGANIZE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER LAND...AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE 00Z EMCWF IN DAY 1-3 TIMEFRAME AS
IT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN ITS DEPICTION OF A WEAKER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THUS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR CWA. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATES
3 DAY AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF 4 TO 7
INCHES ACROSS ACADIANA...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY WARRANT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME BUT ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
LAFAYETTE/NEW IBERIA/MORGAN CITY REGION LATER TODAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

OTHER THAN FORMER TD5...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO NEAR
BATON ROUGE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TO A LINE FROM LUFKIN TO FORT POLK TO SIMMESPORT. LATEST
4.0 KM WRF SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
AND WILL RAISE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...APPEARS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE STILL ACHIEVABLE AND NO CHANGES
TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY ARE PLANNED. HEAT INDEX READINGS
APPEAR THEY MAY REACH CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT
DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF END TO THE SEEMINGLY CONTINUOUS OPPRESSIVE
HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM FORMER TD5 WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE 500
MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING HEIGHTS RISING TO 595 DM BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS IN THE
DAY 4-7 TIMEFRAME BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. AFTER THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...ERODING THE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ALLOWING FOR
A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD.

&&

.MARINE...

MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND THE FUTURE OF FORMER TD5. WITH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INLAND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS
OR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE UNLIKELY. THUS MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND FORMER TD5 WILL BRING OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  98  79  95  78  89 /  40  30  50  60  60
KBPT  97  79  96  78  90 /  40  20  40  50  60
KAEX 100  77  98  78  87 /  40  20  40  50  60
KLFT  98  79  91  77  87 /  50  40  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...
     ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...
     VERNON.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
     NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

SHAMBURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-171015-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
513 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 5 WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON
TUESDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING
THE LAFAYETTE...NEW IBERIA...AND MORGAN CITY AREAS.

AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ACADIANA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR ACADIANA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FLOODING.

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
117 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SW BURNS POINT       29.13N 91.88W
08/16/2010  M32 MPH          GMZ455             LA   ASOS

&&

JTRARES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

LAZ033-043>045-053-161045-
ST. LANDRY LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-LAFAYETTE LA-ACADIA LA-IBERIA LA-
443 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...
ACADIA...IBERIA AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 441 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF PALMETTO TO 6 MILES NORTH OF WHISKEY BAY TO PLAQUEMINE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ATCHAFALAYA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AND PORT BARRE BY 450 AM...
  WHISKEY BAY BY 455 AM...
  LAKE PELBA BY 500 AM...
  OPELOUSAS...BUTTE LA ROSE...LEONVILLE AND ARNAUDVILLE BY 505 AM...
  HENDERSON AND CECILIA BY 510 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 2996 9150 3009 9188 3039 9233 3073 9192
      3063 9174 3056 9175 3053 9173 3051 9174
      3050 9169 3045 9163 3032 9161 3026 9157
      3024 9147 3012 9146 3011 9142

JT

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