River Flood Warning 23, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO
LUFKIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED ALONG FRONT AND WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT
ACCORDINGLY. HAVE SENT OUT A ZONE UPDATE INCREASING POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT AND BULK OF RAINS TO SINK SOUTH TO NEAR THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS GRIDS AND
ZONES INDICATING LOWERING POPS INLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK. HAVE INGESTED
GFS MOS DEWPOINTS INTO THE GRIDS. NAM APPEARS TOO ROBUST WITH
SURFACE DRY AIR ADVECTION. ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT GFS
MOS MAY BE OVER-DOING IT ALSO. SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWING
DEWPOINTS HOLDING AT 70 OR ABOVE OVER LOUISIANA. WITH ALL
SAID...ANY NOTICEABLE RH DROP WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT.

DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY AS SOUTH TEXAS HIGH EDGES EAST.
WARM DAYS WILL CONTINUE...NIGHTS WILL BE COOLER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MID-WEEK. HAVE REINTRODUCED LOW
END RAIN CHANCES FOR LATTER IN THE WEEK AS OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A REMOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING VARIABLE WINDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOMING REESTABLISHED THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES WITH A MORE EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  94  68  94  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  73  93  70  94  73 /  30  20  10  10  10
KAEX  66  95  60  94  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
KLFT  71  94  67  93  72 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

MARCOTTE