Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
140 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE STRONG SIDE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A COUPLE
PULSE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER AIR
SOUNDING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY AND THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT ON OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL CAUSE
OUR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE STARTING MONDAY AND THROUGH THE MID
PART OF THE WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO PLACE AT MID LEVELS AND A SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THE NEXT
COULD OF DAYS. WE WILL SEE A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEK. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A NICE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND
KNOCK DOWN THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. PW VALUES ON THURSDAY
APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS. THE HEAT IS ON FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT BY FRIDAY AND A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. IT
LOOKS RATHER TOASTY AND NO RAIN CHANCES. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER ON THE LIGHT SIDE AROUND 10 KTS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE RATHER ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ENDING AROUND SUNSET. THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  72  91  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
KBPT  72  91  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
KAEX  71  92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  73  90  72  90  72 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
540 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-311000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
540 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-311000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
540 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE COASTAL MARSHES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY AROUND ATCHAFALAYA BAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

11

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