Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRAVERSING THE CNTRL GULF. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PWAT OF 2.6 INCHES PER KLCH 00Z SOUNDING...WHICH IS ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. KLCH 88D ALREADY LIGHTING UP AGAIN THIS MORNING
AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...HELPING TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND STORM
MOTIONS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL AFTN TEMPS AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 90 DEGREES. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ON TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A MOIST
UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM ARK TO GA...BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER...WITH A SLT CHC OF RAIN AND AFTN TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD WEAKEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER EASTERLY
WAVE CROSSING THE GULF WHICH COULD SPELL AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MADE FEW CHANGES TO
EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAKING FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  76  92  76 /  60  20  30  10
KBPT  89  75  92  76 /  60  20  30  10
KAEX  90  73  94  73 /  60  20  20  10
KLFT  89  75  93  75 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
522 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-201030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
522 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANOTHER DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO CAMERON. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS ON MONDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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