Wind Advisory 5, NWS North Platte, NE

929 
WWUS73 KLBF 272256
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
556 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2010

NEZ022-035-056>059-069>071-280000-
/O.CAN.KLBF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-100327T2300Z/
GARDEN-ARTHUR-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSHKOSH...ARTHUR...CHAPPELL...
BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...GRANT...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...
HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS
556 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2010 /456 PM MDT SAT MAR 27 2010/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR UNTIL SUNSET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS MORNING.
ON LOCATED OVER EASTERN N DAKOTA...WHILE A STRONGER LOW PUSHING
LIFTING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OK. A RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG THE
PACIFIC CONUS COAST. RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS RETURNS OVER
KA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEB...ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN LOW. MID CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND HAVE HELP HOLD TEMPS AROUND 40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS/CONCERN IS PRECIP CHANCE AND WIND THE NEXT 18 HOURS
THEN WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL LIFT ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE
LOW PUSHES E...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO S CENTRAL NEB.
MODELS IN MIXED REVIEWS ON HOW FAR WEST PRECIP WILL MAKE IT.
NAM/SREF KEEP PRECIP EAST OF CWA...WHILE GFS BRINGS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO VARIES GREATLY...WITH MET
GUIDANCE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR POPS TODAY...WHILE THE MAV
SHOWS CLOSE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT POP. BASED ON LIMITED RETURNS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HAVE SIDED TO THE DRY SIDE. ALSO
COINCIDING WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER TEMPS...CLOSE
TO 50 DEGREES. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE MORE
MIXING. 850 MB WINDS AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE MIX BEYOND 850 MB TODAY...AND TAP THE
STRONGER WINDS. THUS HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY...FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST NEB...AND THE SOUTHERN PAN HANDLE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SURF WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED.

ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL EXIST LATER TODAY...AS RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND OVER THE WEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING
WEST. TOMORROW TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE
REALLY GETS ORGANIZED FOR MONDAY. 1000 TO 500 THICKNESS VALUES
PUSHING 560 DAM WITH RESULTING SURF TEMPS AROUND 70. THICKNESS
VALUES PUSH CLOSE TO 570 FOR TUESDAY...AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY WARMEST HIGHS INTO THE 80S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS SPRING HEAT. RECORDS THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SO STILL WELL SHY OF ANY
RECORDS.

TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO AGREE ON TIMING. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FROPA AT KLBF OCCURRED AT 07Z. CURRENT CIGS ARE VFR. A LOOK AT
ISENTROPIC SFCS INDICATES DOWNGLIDE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED VFR
CIGS TDY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS
PREVAIL FROM 12Z-18Z FOR KVTN AND KLBF AND WILL PLAN INCLUSION WITH
12Z TAF. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING DEVELOP OR LACK THEREOF UP UNTIL
12Z TAF ISSUANCE. DEEP MIXING COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND AN
UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED LATER. SFC WINDS WILL HOWEVER BECOME QUITE
STRONG DUE TO DEEP MIXING FROM UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT
KLBF WHERE WINDS 35025G35KT FCST FROM 17Z THROUGH 23Z. WINDS TO
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFT 00Z AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ022-035-056>059-069>071.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-272045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010 /243 PM MDT FRI MAR 26 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM O'NEILL TO NORTH PLATTE
TO OSHKOSH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM O'NEILL TO NORTH PLATTE TO OGALLALA.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL
RETURN AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JWS