Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB INTO THE
PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE STARTING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH LACK OF CU NOTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KS AND
EASTERN CO. SEEMS EDGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT /CAP/ IS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. CU HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
THESE AREAS...AND SOME TCU NOW NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST NORTH
OF SIDNEY. ENVIRONMENT SEEMS DECENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
NEB...AND PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT A SFC BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH
LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. RAPID RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID
LEVELS. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL MAIL RESULT...MAINLY
AFTER 04Z MONDAY AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

MONDAY...A SFC CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL SHARPEN AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...AS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE UPPER
60S...SHOULD YIELD SFC BASED CAPES FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND 15C.
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHWEST
NEB...WOULD FAVOR STORMS TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEB PANHANDLE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACK EAST INTO A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACK EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB DURING THE EVENING.
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. FRONT IS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
AGREEMENT NOW...AND FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT
SHOWERY WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z AT TERMINALS KLBF AND
KVTN. MODELS CREATE A SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM WHERE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST...WHILE THE ALTERNATE
SOLUTION BRINGS LITTLE QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND FOCUSES ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTH THAT COULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODEL BLEND WAS FOLLOWED WITH CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 03Z AND BEYOND. STRATUS
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THAT COULD BRING CEILING TO MVFR OR
LOWER WITH CEILING AOB 2500 FT AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. AVIATION
FORECAST WILL CONTINUED TO BE WATCHED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING AND EVOLVES OVERNIGHT WITH UPDATES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR NEB ZONES
022-023...035...056-058...AND 069 UNTIL 03Z.

SHORT/LONG...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-071015-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010 /205 PM MDT SUN JUN 6 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL COVER
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM MILLS IN KEYA PAHA COUNTY...TO STUART IN
HOLT COUNTY TO 8 MILES NORTH OF BURWELL IN GARFIELD COUNTY...TO 4
MILES WEST OF PALISADE IN HAYES COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...OF WHICH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. IN THE EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO
ENHANCE LIFT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WHERE A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN AS
THE CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT AND MOVES EASTWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON MONDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL BE PRESENT NEAR AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANTIOCH IN SHERIDAN
COUNTY TO BURWELL IN GARFIELD COUNTY. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW
TURNS
MORE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
826 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             7 N OGALLALA            41.23N 101.72W
06/06/2010  M1.75 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL AT THE LAKEVIEW DISTRICT ON LAKE MCCONAUGHY

&&

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
829 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             9 NW OGALLALA           41.22N 101.84W
06/06/2010  M1.75 INCH       KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM VORTEX2 RESEARCHERS.

&&

CDC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
842 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             OGALLALA                41.13N 101.72W
06/06/2010  E1.25 INCH       KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
844 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     TSTM WND GST     HERSHEY                 41.16N 101.00W
06/06/2010  E80 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

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