Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS TODAY AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT
0731Z THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A FEW STORMS NEAR THE GLD OFFICE
AND MOVING NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
QPF DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST WITH THE RUC THE DRIEST. NEAR TERM
FORECAST FOLLOWS A MODEL BLEND WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.

AT 07Z THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LOW CENTER NEAR LHX TO ACROSS OK. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE INTO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SCNTRL NEB. THE H85 PROFILER WINDS HAVE VEERED
ONTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH HVLK1 SOUTH AT 30 KNOTS ATTM. THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD LINE VISIBLE EARLIER ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED WHILE RADAR SHOWS BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWEST ATTM. CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST WITH BOUNDARY TO BECOME PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
RATIOS REACH AROUND AN INCH TODAY WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG CAP THROUGH THE MORNING THEN STEADILY
ERODES THROUGH 4 PM AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE OVER 2000
J/KG AT KLBF. CONVECTION EARLY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH WIND AND
SMALL HAIL PRIMARY THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS
STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THE
STORMS LINGERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM [WED INTO THU] AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EAST. TIMING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES EAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH LOW POPS ADJUSTED
THAT WILL NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS FRONT THAT BACKS WEST TO THE
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY RETURNS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES UNTIL SUNDAY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS DAILY UNTIL
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST POSSIBLY MONDAY TO THE PLAINS. THE
H85 THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER GUI DANCES THROUGH DAY 5.

&&

.AVIATION...

BAND OF ACCAS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS CONTINUED TO WARM IN IR IMAGERY.
WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER AREA OF
COOLING TOPS OVER GOODLAND WITH LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS AROUND 12Z THIS AM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH TRW IN THE TAF AT KLBF AND A TEMPO AT KVTN. FOCUS WILL
BE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KONL VCNTY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...KECK
AVIATION...POWER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-021645-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010 /1035 AM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONT
CROSSING NEBRASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPER CELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FAST WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS

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