Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE SLUG OF MOISTURE ALONG BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 61 AND 83 THIS
AFTERNOON REPRESENTS THE SOLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONCE
THIS LIFTS NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS EVENING DRIER AIR WILL WORK
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH JUST ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEREAFTER. IF STORMS CAN SLOW DOWN AND BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAN WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR.

NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT THE FCST AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING DEVELOPING BY 12Z TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.

THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LATEST
SOLNS LIGHT UP SCNTL AND SERN NEB. THE FRONT AND THEREFORE FOCUS
WILL BE ACTING ACROSS SRN NEB. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH LABOR DAY VIZ A DECENT
BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE CNTL AND SRN
PLAINS. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND 50S WITH A FEW
40S ACROSS WRN NEB WEDS AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES NEXT SATURDAY. NOW BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON BOARD WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS. BY NEXT MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...HIGHS COULD BE BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH 31/00Z. CLOUD CEILINGS AOB 10
KFT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR 8 KFT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. THIS EVENING CLEARING OCCURS AS THE CONVECTIONS LIFTS
NORTHEAST TO ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT SEE TO BE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 31/00Z ALTHOUGH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TO INCLUDE TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN.

&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ007-010-028-029.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-311000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
304 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010 /204 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
A LINE FROM ELI IN CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY TO IMPERIAL IN CHASE
COUNTY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANE LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL
ENHANCE LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FURTHER
DEVELOP. AS THE CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. WIND SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING EAST OF THE PANHANDLE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK