Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY KEEPING NORTHERN PLAINS IN COOLER AIR
AGAIN TODAY. H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EJECTING
OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING AND OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION TODAY AND HAVE USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM. ONGOING CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
AREA AND INTENSITY. SOME SEVERE NORTH WHERE THEY HAVE HAD MORE
SUN. MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE OVER DONE PW'S BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MCS MOVES ALONG
NORTHERN KANSAS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. HAVE BASICALLY FOLLOWED HPC
QPF. SHOWERS ISOLATED T EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TOMORROW
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE. H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
90S. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. H5 RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TSTM ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. AFTER 09Z
TUESDAY...AREAS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF STRATUS. SFC WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE INVOF OF TSTMS...OTHERWISE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-006-008>010-025>029-094.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
457 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
457 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010 /357 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND GST     EWING                   42.26N 98.34W
08/16/2010  E80 MPH          HOLT               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE CHIEF NOW ESTIMATING 70 TO 80 MPH WIND GUSTS
            ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN EWING...ALONG WITH PEA
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNW STUART            42.69N 99.19W
08/16/2010  E70.00 MPH       HOLT               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH
            THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH GREATLY
            REDUCED VISIBILITY.

0208 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N STUART              42.63N 99.14W
08/16/2010                   HOLT               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN 2 TO 3 MILES NORTH OF STUART AND A
            METAL POLE BUILDING BLOWN OFF FOUNDATION ACCORDING TO
            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL.

0208 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N ATKINSON            42.58N 98.98W
08/16/2010  E80.00 MPH       HOLT               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0229 PM     HAIL             3 E EMMET               42.48N 98.75W
08/16/2010  M0.88 INCH       HOLT               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH ESTIMATED 70 TO 80 MPH WIND
            GUSTS REPORTED BETWEEN EMMET AND ONEILL...ABOUT 3 MILES
            EAST OF EMMET.

0229 PM     TSTM WND GST     ONEILL                  42.46N 98.65W
08/16/2010  E75.00 MPH       HOLT               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL ESTIMATING 70 T0 75 MILE AN
            HOUR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN ONEILL.

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W O'NEILL             42.46N 98.69W
08/16/2010  M68.00 MPH       HOLT               NE   AWOS

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     EWING                   42.26N 98.34W
08/16/2010  E50.00 MPH       HOLT               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            EWING FIRE CHIEF ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG
            WITH HEAVY RAIN.

0303 PM     TSTM WND GST     EWING                   42.26N 98.34W
08/16/2010  E80.00 MPH       HOLT               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE CHIEF NOW ESTIMATING 70 TO 80 MPH WIND GUSTS
            ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN EWING...ALONG WITH PEA
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

SJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
427 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

NEZ036-037-059-162215-
LINCOLN NE-LOGAN NE-MCPHERSON NE-
427 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHERN
LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RINGGOLD...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF STAPLETON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER 100 AROUND 435 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
501 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

NEZ038-059-162245-
CUSTER NE-LINCOLN NE-
501 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF
ARNOLD TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAXWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HIGHWAY 47 MILE MARKER 80 AND HIGHWAY 40 MILE MARKER 20 AROUND 515 PM
CDT.
MERNA AND CALLAWAY AROUND 520 PM CDT.
BROKEN BOW AROUND 530 PM CDT.
WESTERVILLE...WEISSERT...PRESSEY STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
OCONTO AND BERWYN AROUND 540 PM CDT.
ANSLEY AND HIGHWAY 92 MILE MARKER 300 AROUND 545 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TAYLOR

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