Severe Thunderstorm Warning 335, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
TSTM CHANCES AND THE HEAT REMAIN THE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR AREAS EAST OF A
NORTH PLATTE TO BASSETT LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
ROUGHLY IMPERIAL TO AINSWORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...HEAT INDEXES WILL PUSH
INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT
FOR TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AGREE WITH THIS BASED
ON 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...CAPE...AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE ALSO
HAVE A SFC TROUGH TO FOCUS CONVECTION RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COMBINE ALL OF THIS WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND TSTMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. INCREASED POPS TO 30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON INVOF OF SFC TROUGH...AND WENT LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED
BY HIGH K INDEX VALUES...AND PWAT/S APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MORE OF
THE SAME MONDAY...WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ALONG WITH
TSTM CHANCES. MODELS AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH DEW POINTS /MID 70S/ POOLING
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY RESULT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS JUST NORTH STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS MONDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GFS INDICATES INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH INCREASED SHEAR PROFILES...AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AON 15000 FT AGL...THIS MORNING...WILL DROP TO
10000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AND THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. WILL HANDLE TSRAS WITH A PROB30 GROUP
ATTM...AS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF AND EAST OF THE KVTN TERMINAL. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TS IN THE KVTN TAF THIS ISSUANCE
AS TS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED BEHIND THE FRONT. WEST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER
TODAY. ATTM THE THREAT FOR FOG IS HIGHEST AT THE KVTN TERMINAL BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM TO PUT IN THE 12Z TAF FCST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT TODAY
TILL 800 PM CDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ007-009>010-026>029-038-059-071.

&&

DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-091030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
525 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010 /425 AM MDT SUN AUG 8 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
DUNNING AND NAPER. HEAT INDEXES UP TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON HEATING...AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM
HAYES CENTER TO SPRINGVIEW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW TO NAPER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY NIGHT AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
225 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             9 NE NEWPORT            42.69N 99.20W
08/08/2010  M0.50 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN ALSO OCCURRING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

CARMEL

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