Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
245 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK HAS BEGUN ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTN...

.DISCUSSION...
LATE AFTN AND TONIGHT...

CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO SRN WYOMING HAS CAUSED HEIGHT FALLS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. VERY MOIST FLOW HAS PUSHED AS
FAR WEST AS THE NEBR/WY BORDER WITH COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE
INTO WRN PNHDL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT FOCUS FOR STORMS IS ALONG
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS IN WRN PNHDL INTO SWRN SD. ANOTHER STRONG
FOCUS AREA IS ALONG A DRYLINE IN NERN CO.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
MOIST AND UNSTABLE REGIME IN WRN NEBR HAS GENERATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH INDICATE ROTATION ON RADAR. ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN DEEP SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN LARGER.

LINE OF STORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR LINE OF STORMS AFTER 7 PM CDT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR EASTERN AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT CDT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVANCED INTO THE NERN NM/TX PNHDL REGION BY 00Z WED. WINDS TUESDAY
TO BE LIGHT NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING...BECMG SOUTHEAST BY LATER
AFTN. ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL SOUTH OF HWY 2.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THEN
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHC POPS WED LOOK ON TRACK FROM
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSAGE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AS DUE TO
BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
CNTRL.NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVER WEATHER AND WILL BECOME MORE CLEARLY
DEFINED BY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPS BEHIND FRONT COOLER IN THE MID
70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION WEATHER...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AND ASSOCIATED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 03Z...06Z AT THE VERY
LATEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AS A DRYLINE SWEEPS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING TIL 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>009-022>025-035>037-056>059
-069-070-094.

WIND ADVISORY TIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ010-026>029-038-071.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...ROBERG
AVIATION...COLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1106 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251615-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1106 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010 /1006 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010/

...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ELSEWHERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND FORM INTO A LINE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
HIGHWAY 83 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL 2 INCHES OR LARGER...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL
ALSO OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF A SPENCER TO HAYES CENTER
LINE... WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ARTHUR                  41.57N 101.69W
05/24/2010  M0.00 INCH       ARTHUR             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.00 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES IN ARTHUR.

0516 PM     HAIL             ARTHUR                  41.57N 101.69W
05/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       ARTHUR             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BHIRSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
541 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GORDON                  42.81N 102.20W
05/24/2010                   SHERIDAN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN GORDON.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSCOE                  41.13N 101.60W
05/24/2010                   KEITH              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI TRAILER OVERTURNED NEAR ROSCOE

&&

BHIRSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
544 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             8 W SUTHERLAND          41.16N 101.28W
05/24/2010  E1.25 INCH       KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL

&&

BHIRSCH

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