Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN 1ST PARAGRAPH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SREF/NAM/GFS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT ON THE PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...AND
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS AREA WIDE. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE IN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED TSTMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NEB. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG ALONG WITH 35 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...SO A SUPERCELL OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEB
PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...AND BASED ON THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS AREA SEEMS MOST AT RISK FOR A STRONG OR
SEVERE STORM. A FEW STORMS MAY THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEB. OTHERWISE...BASED OFF OF EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY...FEEL MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE BULLISH ON CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND WENT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS HIGHS ACROSS
THE BOARD IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS /30 PERCENT/
COMES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS INDICATES STRONG MID LEVEL WAA...ALONG
WITH A HEALTHY H85 S-SWLY LLJ. A LINGERING STORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY DRY FOR ALL AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED HOT SPELL TO THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF HIGHS IN THE 90S. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PINWHEEL THROUGH OR CLOSE TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE NRN PANHANDLE
ATTM...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. THE LATEST NAM SOLN INDICATES POSSIBLE TSRAS IN WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS FORECAST THOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MID LEVEL FORCING PRESENT THIS
MORNING. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
INCLUSION OF TSRAS WILL BE MADE AROUND FCST ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION TO
TSRA CHANCES...SOME LOW CEILINGS AON 1500 FT AGL AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. SIMILAR TO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...SO MENTION OF LOW VSBYS/CEILINGS WILL WAIT TILL NEAR
FCST ISSUANCE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 12000 FT AGL. CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL DRIFT INTO SWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT KLBF...WHILE
KVTN SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE FOR LINCOLN COUNTY ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER...AS
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY.

&&

DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
532 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010 /432 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANTIOCH...TO TRYON TO BRADY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

NEZ005-094-051800-
EASTERN CHERRY NE-WESTERN CHERRY NE-
1154 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM CDT/NOON MDT/...

AT 1152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF BROWNLEE...OR 20 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MULLEN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROWNLEE AROUND 1230 PM CDT.
HIGHWAY 83 CROSSING THE NORTH LOUP RIVER AROUND 1255 PM CDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

BLONDIN

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