Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO DIGGING SOUTH AS SEEN IN WV. WAVE MOVING
OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ONTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO AS SEEN IN WV. 994MB SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIFFERING ON NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS WITH NAM BLOWING THINGS UP
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND GFS TAKING A MORE CAPPED
APPROACH TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND DEVELOPING QPF OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. STRATUS HAS HELD HEATING BACK SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THUS
LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG CAP AT
750MB. HAVE USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST WITH AN HPC QPF
FORECAST. PWS ON THE SOUNDING HAD DROPPED CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS
MORNING NOW AT 1.15 INCHES. LLJ WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND HELP
PROVIDE IMPETUS TO OVERCOME CAP. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT. FOR MORE ON HYDROLOGY SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. RAINS ENDING
TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL THEN REDEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND AGAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
TROUGH. STILL ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH TD'S AROUND 60F.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST FINALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GIVING THE
FORECAST AREA A MORE ZONAL FLOW. COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 11/00Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL. FOLLOWING
MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH SCT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS...DUE
TO CIGS...COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. BY TOMORROW MORNING...SHOWERS
WILL BE ENDING WITH AREAS OF THE NORTH BECOMING VFR. FURTHER
SOUTH...HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING MVFR STRATUS TO PERSIST INTO MIDDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO REMAINED STEADY
JUST ABOVE 3.0 FEET THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RISE AS RECENT
RAINFALL AND UPSTREAM RESERVOIR RELEASES COMBINE WITH EXPECTED
PRECIP TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE RISE MAY REACH FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WARNING ISSUED
EARLIER. THE GAGE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN WAS
REPORTING 7.59 FEET THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...7.5 FEET...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NUMEROUS REPORTS ACROSS AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA RECORDED
BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. THIS AREA ALSO HAS
SEEN OTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS OVER THE PAST WEEK. DID HAVE
SOME REPORTS OF FLOODING...INCLUDING WATER OVER SEVERAL ROADWAYS.
WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX...POSSIBLY WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THIS REGION AGAIN TONIGHT...WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK

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