Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY EVENING PLAYED OUT A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN ANTICIPATED 24
HOURS AGO WITH CONVECTION FIRING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SANDHILLS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. LARGE MCS CONTIUES TO
DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FLOWING THROUGH NW
KANSAS ATTM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPSTREAM ENERGY CONTINUING TO FLOW
OUT OF EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CO/WY ROCKIES AND THIS ASCENT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SPROUT IN
EASTERN CO AND SW NEB. ACROSS NW NEB INTO BLACK HILLS THIS LIFT IS
OCCURRING MORE LIKELY IN R ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET THAT IS
PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN SDAKOT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AS SUCH WILL
NEED TO KEEP PCPN CHANCE THIS MORNING WITH BASED ON 88D MOSAIC
TRENDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT PCPN
POTENTIAL THO STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO THE NORTH AND UPPER DYNAMICS
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ISO MENTION IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DISCREPENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLN ON STRENGTH OF SFC HIGH AND THE
TIMING OF THIS AIRMASS SLIDING EASTWARD. LEANING TOWARD THE WRF AND
SREF WITH MOISTURE RETURN MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MID LEVEL
WAA HELPING TO SPREAD AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO PLAINS AND THIS
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE INTO
HIGH PLAINS ON STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXPECT EML TO MOVE OVHD
WITH FLOW TURNING SW ALOFT...AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
FORM IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ACTIVE LLVL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WARM DAY LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THURSDAY AS SW FLOW INCREASES FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION
LEAVING FAIRLY STRONG EML/CAP INTO SW NEB WITH MAIN PCPN CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...

DEPARTING MCS STILL INDICATES SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SERN PNHDL
INTO NERN CO. LIFR CIGS AT KVTN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY
14Z...THEN VFR BY 18Z. STRATUS NOT SETTING IN YET AT KLBF EXCEPT
FARTHER WEST IN THE CNTRL AND NRN PNHDL. EXPECT MVFR CIGS MAY SET IN
BY AROUND 12Z AND PERSIST TIL 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TERMINALS
REMAINDER OF TAF FCST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NO INDICATIONS OF ANY FLOODING FROM RECENT MCS PASSAGE. RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES APPEARS HAVE
BEEN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY SOIL.

RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN HAS RADAR
ESTIMATES OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN GARDEN COUNTY AND
EVEN MORE UPSTREAM IN MORRILL COUNTY WHERE AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE
AND A HALF INCH ESTIMATED. RIVER STAGES AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR OR AT BANKFULL CONDITIONS. A FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES AT LEWELLEN DESPITE A STAGE OF 7.46 FEET SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. THE CONCERN IS THAT RECENT RAINFALL
COULD EASILY PUSH STAGES UP A FEW TENTHS OF A FOOT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. UPSTREAM GAGE READINGS SHOW A SLIGHT DROPOFF...LIKELY DUE TO
REDUCED RELEASES FROM WYOMING RESERVOIRS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

13/KAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
810 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-090115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
810 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010 /710 PM MDT MON JUN 7 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL...GOLF BALL SIZE OR BIGGER...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS CONGEAL
INTO A LARGER COMPLEX AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE AREAS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1022 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 S MULLEN              41.94N 101.04W
06/07/2010                   HOOKER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JSWEET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1026 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     11 S MULLEN             41.88N 101.04W
06/07/2010                   HOOKER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS FUNNEL CROSSING HWY 97 11 S MULLEN

&&

JSWEET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1036 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     HAIL             10 S MULLEN             41.90N 101.04W
06/07/2010  E1.00 INCH       HOOKER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSWEET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1038 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     HAIL             10 S MULLEN             41.90N 101.04W
06/07/2010  E1.00 INCH       HOOKER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSWEET

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