River Flood Warning 7, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
539 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THIS MAKES THE
THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT. LIKELY SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING CLOSE TO
THREE DAY TOTALS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE EXCESSIVE TOTALS
HAVE SENT BOTH THE ELKHORN AND NORTH LOUP RIVERS INTO FLOOD. YET
MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LIFTING THOUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. ENSEMBLES HINT AT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOT ONLY
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WE/LL EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT...THEN REEVALUATE TODAY
AND SEE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND IT FURTHER...POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY.

IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DO INDEED EVOLVE AS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY SERIOUS AND POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
MAY RESULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY
CAREFULLY.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN.

AVIATION...
MIXED IFR MVFR AND VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z BUT THEN FALL
BACK TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN PERHAPS IFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

HYDROLOGY...
LARGE SCALE RUNOFF ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HAS LEAD TO NUMEROUS
ROAD CLOSURES AS THIS WATER CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE BIGGER
RIVER BASINS...INCLUDING THE NORTH LOUP RIVER AND ELKHORN RIVER.
BOTH THESE RIVERS ARE ABOVE OR WILL GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AS A
RESULT NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. FARTHER WEST THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MAC CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE OR NEAR
FLOOD STAGE FROM LISCO TO LEWELLEN AND THE MOUTH OF THE LAKE. OF
CONCERN FOR BOTH OF THESE SITUATIONS IS THE ADDITION OF RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF FROM ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-
035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010 /301 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR HAS OCCURRED FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN THE PAST 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS
ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST
CHERRY TO SOUTHERN ROCK COUNTY...HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT OR STILL
HAVE WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS RUN-OFF
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WHEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN. 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 OR MORE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL RISE ON
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WHICH IS ALREADY AT FLOOD STAGE. IN THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUN OFF
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. RIVERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ARE ON THE RISE WITH THE ELKHORN RIVER THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE AREA MOST
CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERSISTENT MID LATITUDE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STREAMING IN OFF THE NORTH PACIFIC. IN COMBINATION WITH
GULF MOISTURE...A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...EXCELLENT FOCUS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAINFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS AND PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AND THE ELKHORN RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

13

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